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Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050

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  • Nagl, Stephan
  • Fürsch, Michaela
  • Paulus, Moritz
  • Richter, Jan
  • Trüby, Johannes
  • Lindenberger, Dietmar

Abstract

In this article we demonstrate how challenging greenhouse gas reduction targets of up to 95% until 2050 can be achieved in the German electricity sector. In the analysis, we focus on the main requirements to reach such challenging targets. To account for interdependencies between the electricity market and the rest of the economy, different models were used to account for feedback loops with all other sectors. We include scenarios with different runtimes and retrofit costs for existing nuclear plants to determine the effects of a prolongation of nuclear power plants in Germany. Key findings for the electricity sector include the importance of a European-wide coordinated electricity grid extension and the exploitation of regional comparative cost effects for renewable sites. Due to political restrictions, nuclear energy will not be available in Germany in 2050. However, the nuclear life-time extension has a positive impact on end consumer electricity prices as well as economic growth in the medium term, if retrofit costs do not exceed certain limits.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Paulus, Moritz & Richter, Jan & Trüby, Johannes & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2011. "Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 185-192.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:19:y:2011:i:3:p:185-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2011.05.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    2. Chen, Fung-Fei & Chou, Seng-Cho & Lu, Tai-Ken, 2013. "Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-171.
    3. Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd & van den Broek, Machteld & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim C. & Faaij, André, 2016. "Least-cost options for integrating intermittent renewables in low-carbon power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 48-74.
    4. Fürsch, Michaela & Hagspiel, Simeon & Jägemann, Cosima & Nagl, Stephan & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Tröster, Eckehard, 2013. "The role of grid extensions in a cost-efficient transformation of the European electricity system until 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 642-652.
    5. Paul Welfens & Christian Lutz, 2012. "Green ICT dynamics: key issues and findings for Germany," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(2), pages 155-163, June.
    6. repec:eee:tefoso:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:126-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Markus Flaute & Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2015. "Economic impacts of renewable power generation technologies and the role of endogenous technological change," GWS Discussion Paper Series 15-9, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    8. Khoodaruth, A. & Elahee, M.K., 2013. "Use of higher fibre cane for increasing cogenerated electricity: Policy implications for Mauritius," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 67-75.
    9. Hagspiel, S. & Jägemann, C. & Lindenberger, D. & Brown, T. & Cherevatskiy, S. & Tröster, E., 2014. "Cost-optimal power system extension under flow-based market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 654-666.
    10. Johannes Truby and Moritz Paulus, 2012. "Market Structure Scenarios in International Steam Coal Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    11. Fürsch, Michaela & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "Promotion of Electricity from Renewable Energy in Europe post 2020 - the Economic Benefits of Cooperation," EWI Working Papers 2013-16, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    12. Bruninx, Kenneth & Madzharov, Darin & Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2013. "Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation—A comprehensive study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 251-261.
    13. Hagspiel, Simeon & Jägemann, Cosima & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Brown, Tom & Cherevatskiy, Stanislav & Tröster, Eckehard, 2013. "Cost-Optimal Power System Extension under Flow-Based Market Coupling," EWI Working Papers 2013-9, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    14. Pattupara, Rajesh & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2016. "Alternative low-carbon electricity pathways in Switzerland and it’s neighbouring countries under a nuclear phase-out scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 152-168.
    15. Lehr, Ulrike & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2012. "Green jobs? Economic impacts of renewable energy in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 358-364.
    16. Jägemann, Cosima & Fürsch, Michaela & Hagspiel, Simeon & Nagl, Stephan, 2013. "Decarbonizing Europe's power sector by 2050 — Analyzing the economic implications of alternative decarbonization pathways," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 622-636.
    17. Heinrichs, Heidi & Jochem, Patrick & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "Including road transport in the EU ETS (European Emissions Trading System): A model-based analysis of the German electricity and transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 708-720.
    18. Riccardo Balzarotti & Saverio Latorrata & Paola Gallo Stampino & Cinzia Cristiani & Giovanni Dotelli, 2015. "Development and Characterization of Non-Conventional Micro-Porous Layers for PEM Fuel Cells," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
    19. Michaela Fursch & Dietmar Lindenberger & Raimund Malischek & Stephan Nagl & Timo Panke & Johannes Truby, 2012. "German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    20. Fürsch, Michaela & Malischek, Raimund & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2012. "Der Merit-Order-Effekt der erneuerbaren Energien - Analyse der kurzen und langen Frist," EWI Working Papers 2012-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    21. Lenzen, Manfred & McBain, Bonnie & Trainer, Ted & Jütte, Silke & Rey-Lescure, Olivier & Huang, Jing, 2016. "Simulating low-carbon electricity supply for Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 553-564.
    22. Vázquez-Rowe, Ian & Reyna, Janet L. & García-Torres, Samy & Kahhat, Ramzy, 2015. "Is climate change-centrism an optimal policy making strategy to set national electricity mixes?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 108-116.
    23. Dr. Christian Lutz & Roland Zieschank & Dr. Thomas Drosdowski, 2015. "Measuring transformation towards a green economy in Germany," GWS Discussion Paper Series 15-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Roadmap 2050; GHG reduction; Renewable energies; Carbon capture and storage; Power plant fleet optimization;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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