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Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050

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  • Nagl, Stephan
  • Fürsch, Michaela
  • Paulus, Moritz
  • Richter, Jan
  • Trüby, Johannes
  • Lindenberger, Dietmar

Abstract

In this article we demonstrate how challenging greenhouse gas reduction targets of up to 95% until 2050 can be achieved in the German electricity sector. In the analysis, we focus on the main requirements to reach such challenging targets. To account for interdependencies between the electricity market and the rest of the economy, different models were used to account for feedback loops with all other sectors. We include scenarios with different runtimes and retrofit costs for existing nuclear plants to determine the effects of a prolongation of nuclear power plants in Germany. Key findings for the electricity sector include the importance of a European-wide coordinated electricity grid extension and the exploitation of regional comparative cost effects for renewable sites. Due to political restrictions, nuclear energy will not be available in Germany in 2050. However, the nuclear life-time extension has a positive impact on end consumer electricity prices as well as economic growth in the medium term, if retrofit costs do not exceed certain limits.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Paulus, Moritz & Richter, Jan & Trüby, Johannes & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2011. "Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 185-192.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:19:y:2011:i:3:p:185-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2011.05.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moreno, R. & Barroso, L.A. & Rudnick, H. & Mocarquer, S. & Bezerra, B., 2010. "Auction approaches of long-term contracts to ensure generation investment in electricity markets: Lessons from the Brazilian and Chilean experiences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5758-5769, October.
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    3. Keles, Dogan & Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2011. "The development of the German energy market until 2030--A critical survey of selected scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 812-825, February.
    4. Erdmenger, Christoph & Lehmann, Harry & Müschen, Klaus & Tambke, Jens & Mayr, Sebastian & Kuhnhenn, Kai, 2009. "A climate protection strategy for Germany--40% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020 compared to 1990," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 158-165, January.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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