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The development of the German energy market until 2030--A critical survey of selected scenarios

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  • Keles, Dogan
  • Möst, Dominik
  • Fichtner, Wolf

Abstract

Many scenarios have been generated in the last years analysing the international energy market. The variety of these scenarios is manifold, as they are generated by different institutions using different methodological approaches and different framework assumptions. However, these scenarios can roughly be classified into three main groups: "moderate", "climate protection" and "resource scarcity and high fossil fuel prices". Analysing the German energy market makes a fourth scenario group necessary, which considers the possible revision of the decided nuclear energy phase out. Most of the existing scenarios developed by different institutions can be allocated into one of these groups. A representative scenario for each group has been selected to illustrate the development of the energy sector until 2030. Contrary to the worldwide primary energy demand (PED), the German PED decreases in each scenario, even though the drop differs strongly throughout the scenarios. On the other hand the structure of the PED in 2030 varies strongly for each scenario, especially regarding the share of fossil energy sources. However, a common robust result can be observed throughout all scenarios, namely the high increase in the share of the renewable energy resources, although the scenario generation processes are not always robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Keles, Dogan & Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2011. "The development of the German energy market until 2030--A critical survey of selected scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 812-825, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:812-825
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Málek & Lukáš Recka & Karel Janda, 2017. "Impact of German Energiewende on transmission lines in the Central European region," CAMA Working Papers 2017-72, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Boßmann, Tobias & Eser, Eike Johannes, 2016. "Model-based assessment of demand-response measures—A comprehensive literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1637-1656.
    3. Chen, Fung-Fei & Chou, Seng-Cho & Lu, Tai-Ken, 2013. "Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-171.
    4. Janda, Karel & Málek, Jan & Rečka, Lukáš, 2017. "Influence of renewable energy sources on transmission networks in Central Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 524-537.
    5. Karel Janda & Jan Malek & Lukas Recka, 2017. "Influence of Renewable Energy Sources on Electricity Transmission Networks in Central Europe," Working Papers IES 2017/05, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2017.
    6. Paraschiv, Florentina & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Schürle, Michael, 2015. "A spot-forward model for electricity prices with regime shifts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 142-153.
    7. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
    8. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
    9. Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Paulus, Moritz & Richter, Jan & Trüby, Johannes & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2011. "Energy policy scenarios to reach challenging climate protection targets in the German electricity sector until 2050," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 185-192.
    10. repec:eee:energy:v:135:y:2017:i:c:p:851-864 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Energy scenarios Energy demand CO2-emissions;

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