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Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Francesca Loria
  • Christian Matthes
  • Donghai Zhang

Abstract

Real gross domestic product and industrial production in the United States display substantial asymmetry and tail risk. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? Our empirical approach, based on quantile regressions and local projections, suggests otherwise. We find that the tenth percentile of predictive growth distributions responds between three and six times more than the median to monetary policy shocks, financial shocks, uncertainty shocks, and oil price shocks, indicating a common transmission mechanism. We present two data-generating processes that are capable of matching this finding: a threshold vector autoregression model and a non-linear equilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Loria & Christian Matthes & Donghai Zhang, 2025. "Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 264-284.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:135:y:2025:i:665:p:264-284.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueae066
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024. "Capturing Macro‐Economic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1099-1127, August.
    3. Korobilis, Dimitris & Schröder, Maximilian, 2025. "Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    4. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    6. Gabriel Pino & Jose Barrales-Ruiz, 2026. "Heterogeneous impact of consumer confidence on US aggregate consumption over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Artemova, Mariia, 2025. "An order-invariant score-driven dynamic factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    8. Martin Iseringhausen & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2025. "A survey-based measure of asymmetric macroeconomic risk in the euro area," Working Papers 68, European Stability Mechanism, revised 11 Feb 2025.
    9. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks," Discussion Papers 14/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Fabio Anobile & Francesco Frangiamore & Marco Maria Matarrese & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions," Working Papers 2025.19, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    12. Marc Schmitt, 2026. "Algorithmic Monitoring: Measuring Market Stress with Machine Learning," Papers 2602.07066, arXiv.org.
    13. Hyejin Yang & Jin Lee, 2025. "Response of tail risks of Euro-dollar exchange rate to monetary policy shocks in the US and the Euro area using penalized local projections," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(6), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," Working Papers 202106, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    15. Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions," Working Paper Series 2436, European Central Bank.
    17. Carboni, Giacomo & Fonseca, Luís & Fornari, Fabio & Urrutia, Leonardo, 2026. "Structural drivers of growth at risk: insights from a VAR-quantile regression approach," Working Paper Series 3171, European Central Bank.
    18. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Vulnerable funding in the global economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    21. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    22. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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