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Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility

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  • Guo, Hui
  • Savickas, Robert

Abstract

Average idiosyncratic stock volatility forecasts the bilateral exchange rates of the US dollar against major foreign currencies in and out of sample. The US dollar tends to appreciate after an increase in US idiosyncratic volatility. Similarly, ceteris paribus, German and Japanese idiosyncratic volatilities positively and significantly correlate with future US dollar prices of the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen, respectively. Our results suggest that exchange rates are predictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:1322-1332
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    Cited by:

    1. Jen-Sin Lee & Chu-Yun Wei, 2012. "Types of Shares and Idiosyncratic Risk," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S3), pages 68-95, September.
    2. Jen-Sin Lee & Chu-Yun Wei, 2012. "Types of Shares and Idiosyncratic Risk," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S3), pages 68-95, September.
    3. Charlotte, Christiansen, 2011. "Intertemporal risk-return trade-off in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 535-549, October.
    4. Axel Grossmann & Marc Simpson & Teofilo Ozuna, 2014. "Investigating the PPP hypothesis using constructed U.S. dollar equilibrium exchange rate misalignments over the post-bretton woods period," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 235-268, April.
    5. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2199-2206, December.
    6. Wang, Zijun, 2010. "Dynamics and causality in industry-specific volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1688-1699, July.

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