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Mean Reversion in G-10 Nominal Exchange Rates

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  • Sweeney, Richard J.
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    Abstract

    According to conventional wisdom, industrial country floating exchange rates contain unit roots. SUR tests on panels of monthly Group of Ten (G-10) log nominal rates reject the null of unit roots for various samples over the current float with significance levels from 0.5% to 15%. On average, in out-of-sample forecasts mean reversion models beat random walks significantly in some forecast periods. For monthly data, the range of expected USD-DEM appreciation rates exceeds 15% per year in the mean reversion model. Mean reversion places strong restrictions on international models: over the sample period, the G-10 had to run monetary policies consistent with stable long-run nominal rates.

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    Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 03 (September)
    Pages: 685-708

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    Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:41:y:2006:i:03:p:685-708_00
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    Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK

    Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_JFQ
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, 06.
    2. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2011. "Mean-variance portfolio selection of cointegrated assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1369-1385, August.
    3. Wong, Hoi Ying & Lo, Yu Wai, 2009. "Option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 179-187, August.
    4. Buckley, Winston S. & Long, Hongwei, 2015. "A discontinuous mispricing model under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 944-955.
    5. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2014. "Pricing foreign equity options with regime-switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 296-305.
    6. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
    7. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    8. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2013. "Optimal investment for an insurer with cointegrated assets: CRRA utility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 52-64.
    9. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2012. "Mean–variance asset–liability management: Cointegrated assets and insurance liability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(3), pages 785-793.

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