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Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank

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Abstract

We study the dynamics of price indices for major U.S. cities. Using panel econometric methods, we find that relative price levels among cities mean revert, but at a surprisingly slow rate. In a panel of 15 cities from 1918 to 1995, we estimate the half life of convergence to be approximately 9 years. The following hypotheses are investigated as explanations for the slow convergence: (i) Arbitrage impediments induced by transportation costs, and (ii) and the inclusion of nontraded goods prices in the overall price index as suggested by the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Our estimates provide an upper bound on convergence rates that participants in European Monetary Union may experience.

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  • Stephen Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert Sonora, 1998. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," Working Papers 32, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:32
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    Cited by:

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    2. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-393, September.
    3. Enrique Alberola & José Manuel Maqués, "undated". "On the revelance and nature of regional inflation differentials: The case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 35, FEDEA.
    4. Iikka Korhonen & Mare Randveer, 2015. "Assessment of the Euros's implications for European economic development," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2000-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Feb 2015.
    5. Enrique Alberola & José Manuel Marqués, 2001. "On the Evolution of Relative Prices and Its Nature at the Regional Level: The Case of Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 451-474, August.
    6. Das, Samarjit & Bhattacharya, Kaushik, 2004. "Price Convergence across Regions in India," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 1/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    7. Christian Dreger & Reinhold Kosfeld, 2007. "Do Regional Price Levels Converge?: Paneleconometric Evidence Based on German Districts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 754, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Sweeney, Richard J., 2006. "Mean Reversion in G-10 Nominal Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 685-708, September.
    9. Ajit Dayanandan & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Price Index Convergence Among Provinces and Cities of Canada: 1978 - 2001," Econometrics Working Papers 0504, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    10. Lovell S. Jarvis & José E. Bervejillo & José P. Cancino, 2005. "International Beef Prices: Is There Evidence of Convergence?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 449-455.
    11. Manuela Nenna, 2001. "Price Level Convergence among Italian Cities: Any Role for the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis?," Working Papers 64, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    12. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:400-426 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Samarjit Das & Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2008. "Price convergence across regions in India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 299-313, March.
    14. Giovanni Arese-Visconti, 2002. "Labor-Cost Effects on Relative Prices between Regions of a Monetary Union: Implications for the EMU," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2002_20, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Dreger Christian & Kosfeld Reinhold, 2010. "Do Regional Price Levels Converge?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 274-286, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing power parity; Convergence; European Monetary Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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