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Not All Regions Are Alike: Evaluating the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Local and Aggregate Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Arlan Brucal

    () (London School of Economics)

  • Michael J. Roberts

    () (University of Hawai'i at MÄ noa)

Abstract

Using a sample of 48 contiguous U.S. states for the period 1973-2013, we study how oil price shocks influence state-level economic growth. The analysis incorporates (1) a structural decomposition of the supply and demand factors that drive the real price of crude oil; (2) heterogeneity of states in terms of their production and consumption of oil and natural gas; and (3) economic spillovers across neighboring states. Oil price effects vary across states, depending on the underlying source of the price shock and a state's average production of oil relative to its average consumption. Oil- exporting states are more vulnerable to unanticipated changes in oil prices, and the direct effect of oil price shocks can magnify or temper effects on neighboring states. Aggregated predictions from the state-level model also differ modestly from stand-alone aggregate model (Kilian , 2009 ). The aggregated state-level model implies that the recent (2005-2016) decline in U.S. dependence on foreign oil reduced aggregate sensitivity to exogenous supply shocks by more than a third.

Suggested Citation

  • Arlan Brucal & Michael J. Roberts, 2018. "Not All Regions Are Alike: Evaluating the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Local and Aggregate Economies," Working Papers 201807, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201807
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_18-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlino, Gerald A. & Inman, Robert P., 2013. "Local deficits and local jobs: Can US states stabilize their own economies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 517-530.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    3. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    4. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, March.
    5. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
    6. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    7. Baicker, Katherine, 2005. "The spillover effects of state spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 529-544, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; economic spillovers; dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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