IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v120y2022icp40-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy

Author

Listed:
  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan

Abstract

Using daily data on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from China and the rest of the world, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity. The empirical results based on a structural vector autoregression model using crude oil prices (COP) and the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) are consistent with increases in COVID-19 cases acting as negative demand shocks in the global economic activity (reflected as reductions in COP) and negative supply shocks in the global transportation of commodities (reflected as increases in BDI). The historical decomposition results further suggest that the effects of COVID-19 cases on COP and BDI have been mostly observed in the early COVID-19 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 40-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:120:y:2022:i:c:p:40-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.03.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X22000634
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.03.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Ying & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2011. "What has driven oil prices since 2000? A structural change perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1082-1094.
    2. Alexandre Dolgui & Dmitry Ivanov & Boris Sokolov, 2018. "Ripple effect in the supply chain: an analysis and recent literature," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1-2), pages 414-430, January.
    3. Alexandre Dolgui & Dmitry Ivanov & Maxim Rozhkov, 2020. "Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(5), pages 1285-1301, March.
    4. Dmitry Ivanov & Alexander Tsipoulanidis & Jörn Schönberger, 2017. "Erratum to: Global Supply Chain and Operations Management," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Global Supply Chain and Operations Management, pages E1-E1, Springer.
    5. Li, Yuhong & Zobel, Christopher W., 2020. "Exploring supply chain network resilience in the presence of the ripple effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Ji Chou & Nai-Fong Kuo & Su-Ling Peng, 2004. "Potential Impacts of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwan's Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 84-99.
    7. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 424-435.
    8. Garvey, Myles D. & Carnovale, Steven & Yeniyurt, Sengun, 2015. "An analytical framework for supply network risk propagation: A Bayesian network approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(2), pages 618-627.
    9. Dmitry Ivanov & Alexander Tsipoulanidis & Jörn Schönberger, 2017. "Global Supply Chain and Operations Management," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-24217-0, October.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    11. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2012. "Considering macroeconomic indicators in the food before fuel nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2021-2028.
    12. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2020. "Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Spyros Makridakis & Andreas Merikas & Anna Merika & Mike G. Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin, 2020. "A novel forecasting model for the Baltic dry index utilizing optimal squeezing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 56-68, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li Chen & Guang Zhang, 2022. "COVID-19 Effects on Arbitrage Trading in the Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Famiglietti, Matthew & Leibovici, Fernando, 2022. "The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Ghareeb Ahmad, 2023. "Time Time Series Forecasting of Stock Price for Maritime Shipping Company in COVID-19 Period Using Multi-Step Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1728-1747, July.
    4. Khurshid, Adnan & Khan, Khalid & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Chen, Yufeng, 2024. "Asymmetric multifractality: Comparative efficiency analysis of global technological and renewable energy prices using MFDFA and A-MFDFA approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 7-13, January.
    2. Ivanov, Dmitry & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2021. "OR-methods for coping with the ripple effect in supply chains during COVID-19 pandemic: Managerial insights and research implications," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2020. "Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Dmitry Ivanov, 2022. "Viable supply chain model: integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives—lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 1411-1431, December.
    6. Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Moktadir, Md. Abdul & Lau, Kwok Hung, 2021. "Supply chain recovery challenges in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 316-329.
    7. Liu, Ming & Lin, Tao & Chu, Feng & Ding, Yueyu & Zheng, Feifeng & Chu, Chengbin, 2023. "Bi-objective optimization for supply chain ripple effect management under disruption risks with supplier actions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    8. Brusset, Xavier & Ivanov, Dmitry & Jebali, Aida & La Torre, Davide & Repetto, Marco, 2023. "A dynamic approach to supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis in an epidemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    9. Burgos, Diana & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2021. "Food retail supply chain resilience and the COVID-19 pandemic: A digital twin-based impact analysis and improvement directions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Manupati, V.K. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Ramkumar, M. & Panigrahi, Suraj & Sharma, Yash & Mishra, Prakriti, 2022. "Recovery strategies for a disrupted supply chain network: Leveraging blockchain technology in pre- and post-disruption scenarios," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    11. Dirzka, Christopher & Acciaro, Michele, 2022. "Global shipping network dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic's initial phases," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Niels Bugert & Rainer Lasch, 2023. "Analyzing upstream and downstream risk propagation in supply networks by combining Agent-based Modeling and Bayesian networks," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(5), pages 859-889, July.
    13. Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Okhunjanov, Botir B., 2021. "Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Alam, Md Fahim Bin & Tushar, Saifur Rahman & Ahmed, Tazim & Karmaker, Chitra Lekha & Bari, A.B.M. Mainul & de Jesus Pacheco, Diego Augusto & Nayyar, Anand & Islam, Abu Reza Md Towfiqul, 2024. "Analysis of the enablers to deal with the ripple effect in food grain supply chains under disruption: Implications for food security and sustainability," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    15. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2023. "Intelligent digital twin (iDT) for supply chain stress-testing, resilience, and viability," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    16. Lin, Arthur J. & Chang, Hai Yen & Hsiao, Jung Lieh, 2019. "Does the Baltic Dry Index drive volatility spillovers in the commodities, currency, or stock markets?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 265-283.
    17. Maciel M. Queiroz & Dmitry Ivanov & Alexandre Dolgui & Samuel Fosso Wamba, 2022. "Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 1159-1196, December.
    18. Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
    19. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 77-88.
    20. Bai, Shuming & Koong, Kai S., 2018. "Oil prices, stock returns, and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-33.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Coronavirus; Baltic dry index; Crude oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:120:y:2022:i:c:p:40-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.