IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea11/103689.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues

Author

Listed:
  • Qiu, Cheng
  • Colson, Gregory
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

In this study, a Structural Vector Autoregression model (SVAR) is employed to decompose how supply/demand structural shocks affect food and fuel prices within fuel and corn markets. Results indicate that the relative importance of each structural shock in explaining the variation of corn prices is different. Our findings support the hypothesis that corn prices increase as a response to those positive demand shocks in the short run, while in the long run, global competitive agricultural commodities markets as well as positive supply shocks respond to commodity price shocks, restoring prices to its long-run trends. In conclusion, fundamental market forces of demand and supply as well as real economic aggregated demand shocks were the main contributors of the 2007-2008 food price spike.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103689, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103689
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103689
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jayson Beckman, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," NBER Chapters,in: The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies, pages 189-221 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Saghaian, Sayed H., 2010. "The Impact of the Oil Sector on Commodity Prices: Correlation or Causation?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 477-485, August.
    3. Zhang, Zibin & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 445-451, January.
    4. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José Gil, 2011. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 259-280, June.
    5. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Du, Xiaodong & Muhammad, Andrew, 2012. "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
    6. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(02), pages 501-510, August.
    7. von Braun, Joachim & Ahmed, Akhter & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Fan, Shenggen & Gulati, Ashok & Hoddinott, John & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ruel, Marie & Torero, Maximo & van Rheenen, Te, 2008. "High food prices: The what, who, and how of proposed policy actions [In Chinese]," Policy briefs 1A CH, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Zhang, Zibin & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2007. "Can the U.S. Ethanol Industry Compete in the Alternative Fuels' Market?," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34867, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    10. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    11. Zhang, Zibin & Qiu, Cheng & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Blend-wall economics: Relaxing US ethanol regulations can lead to increased use of fossil fuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3426-3430, July.
    12. David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
    13. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    14. Gohin, A. & Chantret, F., 2010. "The long-run impact of energy prices on world agricultural markets: The role of macro-economic linkages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 333-339, January.
    15. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    16. Xinshen Diao & Derek Headey & Michael Johnson, 2008. "Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve, and what would it require?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 539-550, November.
    17. von Braun, Joachim & Ahmed, Akhter & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Fan, Shenggen & Gulati, Ashok & Hoddinott, John & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ruel, Marie & Torero, Maximo & van Rheenen, Te, 2008. "High food prices: The what, who, and how of proposed policy actions," Policy briefs 1A, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Vincent, David P. & Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R. & Sams, D.C., 1979. "The Short-Term Effect Of Domestic Oil Price Increases On The Australian Economy With Special Reference To The Agricultural Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(02), August.
    19. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    20. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 87-112.
    21. Jha, Shikha & Srinivasan, P. V., 2001. "Food inventory policies under liberalized trade," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 21-29, May.
    22. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(03), November.
    23. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Ethanol, Mandates, and Drought: Insights from a Stochastic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp464, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    24. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    25. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 35-45, January.
    26. Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
    27. Hanson, Kenneth & Robinson, Sherman & Schluter, Gerald E., 1993. "Sectoral Effects Of A World Oil Price Shock: Economywide Linkages To The Agricultural Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(01), July.
    28. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    29. Christian Habermann & Fabian Kindermann, 2007. "Multidimensional Spline Interpolation: Theory and Applications," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 153-169, September.
    30. McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1177-1185.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:inteco:v:150:y:2017:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    3. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    4. Papież, Monika, 2014. "A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol," MPRA Paper 56540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Gbadebo Oladosu & Siwa Msangi, 2013. "Biofuel-Food Market Interactions: A Review of Modeling Approaches and Findings," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1114-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hao, Na & Colson, Gregory & Seong, Byeongchan & Park, Cheolwoo & Wetzstein, Michael, 2015. "Drought, ethanol, and livestock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 301-307.
    9. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    11. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    12. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2016. "Contemporaneous interactions among fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael, 2014. "An ethanol blend wall shift is prone to increase petroleum gasoline demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 160-165.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food; fuel; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.