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Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues

Author

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  • Qiu, Cheng
  • Colson, Gregory
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

In this study, a Structural Vector Autoregression model (SVAR) is employed to decompose how supply/demand structural shocks affect food and fuel prices within fuel and corn markets. Results indicate that the relative importance of each structural shock in explaining the variation of corn prices is different. Our findings support the hypothesis that corn prices increase as a response to those positive demand shocks in the short run, while in the long run, global competitive agricultural commodities markets as well as positive supply shocks respond to commodity price shocks, restoring prices to its long-run trends. In conclusion, fundamental market forces of demand and supply as well as real economic aggregated demand shocks were the main contributors of the 2007-2008 food price spike.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103689, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103689
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103689
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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