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Identification in models of gasoline pricing

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  • Bachmeier, Lance

Abstract

This paper presents evidence that the price of oil does not respond contemporaneously to shocks to the US gasoline market. We find no support for the hypothesis of feedback from the US gasoline market to the price of oil, justifying the identification of impulse response functions by applying a Cholesky decomposition (see, e.g., Kilian (2010)). Our results have implications for tests of asymmetric gasoline price responses and forecasting models of the price of crude oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmeier, Lance, 2013. "Identification in models of gasoline pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 71-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:71-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.03.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    3. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(2), pages 87-112, April.
    5. Jeremy A. Verlinda, 2008. "Do Rockets Rise Faster And Feathers Fall Slower In An Atmosphere Of Local Market Power? Evidence From The Retail Gasoline Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 581-612, September.
    6. Godby, Rob & Lintner, Anastasia M. & Stengos, Thanasis & Wandschneider, Bo, 2000. "Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 349-368, June.
    7. Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2003. "New Evidence on Asymmetric Gasoline Price Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 772-776, August.
    8. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    9. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    12. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valadkhani, Abbas & Bollen, Bernard, 2013. "An alternative approach to the modelling of interest rate pass through and asymmetric adjustment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 491-494.
    2. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Oil price pass-through into consumer prices: Evidence from U.S. weekly data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Pozo, Veronica F. & Bachmeier, Lance J. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2021. "Are there price asymmetries in the U.S. beef market?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    4. Michael L Polemis & Panagiotis N Fotis, 2015. "Rent seeking oligopolistic behaviour in European gasoline markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 827-833.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gasoline; Crude oil; Error correction; Rockets and feathers; Identification; Heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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