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White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk

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  • Hany Abdel‐Latif
  • Mahmoud El‐Gamal

Abstract

We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega‐project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hany Abdel‐Latif & Mahmoud El‐Gamal, 2022. "White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(1), pages 60-107, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:69:y:2022:i:1:p:60-107
    DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12279
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