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Antecedents of war: the geopolitics of low oil prices and decelerating financial liquidity

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  • Hany Abdel-Latif
  • Mahmoud El-Gamal

Abstract

We investigate the joint dynamics of oil prices, financial liquidity and geopolitical risk, within a multi-country global vector autoregressive model. We find that low oil prices are expected to trigger higher levels of geopolitical risk and that decelerating financial liquidity serves as an accelerator.

Suggested Citation

  • Hany Abdel-Latif & Mahmoud El-Gamal, 2019. "Antecedents of war: the geopolitics of low oil prices and decelerating financial liquidity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 765-769, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:26:y:2019:i:9:p:765-769
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2018.1494802
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    Cited by:

    1. Boying Li & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu & Bo Sui, 2020. "Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 492-516, May.
    2. Hany Abdel‐Latif & Mahmoud El‐Gamal, 2022. "White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(1), pages 60-107, February.
    3. Liu, Zhen & Tang, Yuk Ming & Chau, Ka Yin & Chien, Fengsheng & Iqbal, Wasim & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2021. "Incorporating strategic petroleum reserve and welfare losses: A way forward for the policy development of crude oil resources in South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Yang, Yang & Liu, Zhen & Saydaliev, Hayot Berk & Iqbal, Sajid, 2022. "Economic impact of crude oil supply disruption on social welfare losses and strategic petroleum reserves," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Adeniyi Adeosun, Opeoluwa & Anagreh, Suhaib & Tabash, Mosab I. & Adedokun, Adebayo, 2023. "Revisiting the connectedness between oil prices and uncertainty indicators in BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    6. Samir Cedic & Alwan Mahmoud & Matteo Manera & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Uncertainty and Stock Returns in Energy Markets: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 2021.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Ali Raza & Maryam Khokhar & Reyna Esperanza Zea Gordillo & Faisal Ejaz & Tahir Saeed Jagirani & Fodor Zita Júlia & Md Billal Hossain, 2024. "Economic Gains and Losses for Sustainable Policy Development of Crude Oil Resources: A Historical Perspective of Indian Subcontinent," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 642-655, March.
    8. Abid, Ilyes & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Kaabia, Olfa & Tarchella, Salma, 2023. "Geopolitical risk on energy, agriculture, livestock, precious and industrial metals: New insights from a Markov Switching model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    9. Joseph Micallef & Simon Grima & Jonathan Spiteri & Ramona Rupeika-Apoga, 2023. "Assessing the Causality Relationship between the Geopolitical Risk Index and the Agricultural Commodity Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Abdel-Latif, Hany & El-Gamal, Mahmoud, 2020. "Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Hemrit, Wael & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi, 2021. "Insurance and geopolitical risk: Fresh empirical evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 320-334.
    12. Ivanovski, Kris & Hailemariam, Abebe, 2022. "Time-varying geopolitical risk and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 206-221.
    13. Naif Alsagr & Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor, 2020. "Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 305-314.
    14. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.

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