IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2020-05-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Naif Alsagr

    (Department of Business, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain,)

  • Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor

    (Department of Business, Centre for Entrepreneurship and Social Innovation Research, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

This paper aims to assess and compare the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the banking sector profitability of "oil and nonoil dependent" emerging markets. For empirical estimation, we used annual macro-level data of all the countries listed in the GPR index from the period 1998 to 2017. The results of the fixed effect model indicate a negative significant impact of GPR on banking sectors' profitability. Additionally, the results highlight the significant weakening moderation role of oil rent in the negative impact of GPR on the banking sector profitability. Multiple contributions arise from this study: Firstly, it explains and compares the impact of geopolitical risk on the banking sector profitability in non-oil-dependent. and oil-dependent economies. Secondly, our study sheds the light on the moderation effect of oil rent in the relationship between geopolitical risk and banking sector profitability. Indeed, the oil curse or blessing argument was neither revealed nor clarified in the relevant literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Naif Alsagr & Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor, 2020. "Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 305-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-05-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/9668/5289
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/9668/5289
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stijns, Jean-Philippe C., 2005. "Natural resource abundance and economic growth revisited," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 107-130, June.
    2. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    3. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    6. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    7. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
    8. Hany Abdel-Latif & Mahmoud El-Gamal, 2019. "Antecedents of war: the geopolitics of low oil prices and decelerating financial liquidity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 765-769, May.
    9. Eissa A. Al‐Homaidi & Mosab I. Tabash & Najib H. Farhan & Faozi A. Almaqtari, 2019. "The determinants of liquidity of Indian listed commercial banks: A panel data approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1616521-161, January.
    10. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Poelhekke, Steven, 2010. "The pungent smell of "red herrings": Subsoil assets, rents, volatility and the resource curse," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 44-55, July.
    11. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    12. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    14. Mei, Dexiang & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin & Wang, Lu, 2020. "Geopolitical risk uncertainty and oil future volatility: Evidence from MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Eggoh C. Jude, 2010. "Financial Development And Growth: A Panel Smooth Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-33, March.
    16. Asif, Muhammad & Khan, Khan Burhan & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Abro, Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi & Zaman, Khalid, 2020. "Dynamic interaction between financial development and natural resources: Evaluating the ‘Resource curse’ hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    18. Bitar, Mohammad & Madiès, Philippe & Taramasco, Ollivier, 2017. "What makes Islamic banks different? A multivariate approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 215-235.
    19. Gaies, Brahim & Kaabia, Olfa & Ayadi, Rim & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes, 2019. "Financial development and energy consumption: Is the MENA region different?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "A Mixed Blessing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 204-225, June.
    21. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    22. Noguera-Santaella, José, 2016. "Geopolitics and the oil price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 301-309.
    23. Mohammad Bitar & Philippe Madiès & Ollivier Taramasco, 2017. "What makes Islamic banks different ? A multivariate approach," Post-Print hal-01980549, HAL.
    24. Susan Creane & Rishi Goyal & A. Mushfiq Mobarak & Randa Sab, 2006. "Measuring Financial Development in the Middle East and North Africa: A New Database," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-7.
    25. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Maghyereh, Aktham & Hassan, Abul & Molyneux, Phillip, 2020. "Political risk and bank stability in the Middle East and North Africa region," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    26. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    27. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
    28. Ghosh, Saibal, 2016. "Political transition and bank performance: How important was the Arab Spring?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 372-382.
    29. Faozi A. Almaqtari & Eissa A. Al‐Homaidi & Mosab I. Tabash & Najib H. Farhan, 2019. "The determinants of profitability of Indian commercial banks: A panel data approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 168-185, January.
    30. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    31. Rick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2010. "The Pungent Smell of “Red Herrings’: Subsoil assets, rents, volatility and the resource curse," OxCarre Working Papers 033, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    32. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    33. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
    34. Adams, Dawda & Adams, Kweku & Ullah, Subhan & Ullah, Farid, 2019. "Globalisation, governance, accountability and the natural resource ‘curse’: Implications for socio-economic growth of oil-rich developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 128-140.
    35. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
    36. Smith, Brock, 2015. "The resource curse exorcised: Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 57-73.
    37. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2008. "Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 411-424, August.
    38. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. "Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
    39. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 91-110, February.
    40. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    41. Barış Soybilgen & Huseyin Kaya & Dincer Dedeoglu, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 717-725.
    42. Gaies, Brahim & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2019. "Banking crises in developing countries–What crucial role of exchange rate stability and external liabilities?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    43. Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
    44. Tiago de. V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2011. "Does oil abundance harm growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1181-1184.
    45. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9mf223rs, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    46. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    47. Hani El-Chaarani, 2019. "The Impact of oil Prices on the Financial Performance of Banking Sector in Middle East Region," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 148-156.
    48. Farag, Hisham & Mallin, Chris, 2017. "Board diversity and financial fragility: Evidence from European banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 98-112.
    49. Naif AlSagr & Samir Belkhaoui & Abdullah Aldosari, 2018. "The Effect of Corporate Governance Mechanisms on Bank Performance Evidence from Saudi Banking Sector," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(8), pages 1111-1125.
    50. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    51. Zampara, K. & Giannopoulos, M. & Koufopoulos, D. N., 2017. "Macroeconomic and industry-specific determinants of Greek bank profitability," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 10(1), pages 13-22, March.
    52. Naif AlSagr & Samir Belkhaoui & Abdullah Aldosari, 2018. "The Effect of Corporate Governance Mechanisms on Bank Performance Evidence from Saudi Banking Sector," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(8), pages 1111-1125, August.
    53. Belkhir, Mohamed & Grira, Jocelyn & Hassan, M. Kabir & Soumaré, Issouf, 2019. "Islamic banks and political risk: International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 39-55.
    54. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and bank stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    2. Zouhaier Dhifaoui & Kaies Ncibi & Faicel Gasmi & Abulmajeed Abdallah Alqarni, 2023. "The Nexus between Climate Change and Geopolitical Risk Index in Saudi Arabia Based on the Fourier-Domain Transfer Entropy Spectrum Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Miaozhi Yu & Na Wang, 2023. "The Influence of Geopolitical Risk on International Direct Investment and Its Countermeasures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Nisful Laila & Aam S. Rusydiana & Muhamad Iqbal Irfany & Imron HR & Popon Srisusilawati & Muhamad Taqi, 2021. "Energy Economics in Islamic Countries: A Bibliometric Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 88-95.
    6. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Leilei & Yu, Hang & Tu, Yanhong, 2023. "Does Geopolitical risk drive natural resources extraction globally? A Case of Global," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2022. "The effect of oil rent on economic development in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the role of globalization and the international geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    3. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Amany El-Anshasy & Kamiar Mohaddes & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2015. "Oil, Volatility and Institutions:Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1523, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2011. "Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 305-318.
    6. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    7. Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "One Hundred Years of Oil Income and the Iranian Economy: A Curse or a Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4118, CESifo.
    8. Olga Gennadyevna Vasilyeva, 2018. "Natural Resources: How to Measure Them in ‘Resource Curse’ Studies," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 67-91.
    9. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2023. "Natural resource curse: A literature survey and comparative assessment of regional groupings of oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2023. "Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the impact of oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government expenditures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 13-24.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Cheng, Zhonghua & Li, Lianshui & Liu, Jun, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, resource industry dependence and economic green growth in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. James, Alexander, 2019. "Fata morganas in oil-rich, institution-poor economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-242.
    15. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    16. Lashitew, Addisu A. & Werker, Eric, 2020. "Do natural resources help or hinder development? Resource abundance, dependence, and the role of institutions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Graham Davis, 2011. "The resource drag," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-176, June.
    18. Hailu, Degol & Kipgen, Chinpihoi, 2017. "The Extractives Dependence Index (EDI)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 251-264.
    19. Boschini, Anne & Pettersson, Jan & Roine, Jesper, 2013. "The Resource Curse and its Potential Reversal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-41.
    20. Pérez, Claudia & Claveria, Oscar, 2020. "Natural resources and human development: Evidence from mineral-dependent African countries using exploratory graphical analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical Risk; Banking Sector Profitability; Oil Rent; Oil Dependent; Nonoil Dependent; Emerging Markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-05-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.