IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v100y2025ics030142072400816x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamic nexus between economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and natural resource rents of ASEAN-5 countries: Insights from the novel Fourier augmented ARDL method (FAARDL)

Author

Listed:
  • Kisswani, Khalid M.
  • Fikru, Mahelet G.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on natural resource rent (NR) in ASEAN-5 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Utilizing the Fourier augmented autoregressive distributed lag model (FAARDL), we analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of EPU and GPR on NR while controlling for economic growth. Our findings reveal a significant negative impact of GPR on NR across all countries, with varying degrees. EPU shows heterogeneous effects, negatively impacting NR in Indonesia and Thailand, positively affecting the Philippines, but has no significant long-run impact in Malaysia and Singapore. For countries endowed with a diverse set of resources, including both fossil fuels and energy transition minerals, as well as renewable resources such as timber, these findings highlight the need to develop robust resource management strategies. Such strategies are essential for navigating geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Kisswani, Khalid M. & Fikru, Mahelet G., 2025. "The dynamic nexus between economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and natural resource rents of ASEAN-5 countries: Insights from the novel Fourier augmented ARDL method (FAARDL)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:100:y:2025:i:c:s030142072400816x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105449
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142072400816X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105449?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopoulos Dimitris K & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2011. "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Zhou, Bingjun & Huang, Yan & Gao, Ke & Luo, Chunyang, 2024. "How geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty impact coal, natural gas, and oil rent? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 176-181.
    6. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    8. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    9. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    10. Huang, Yongming & Raza, Syed Muhammad Faraz & Hanif, Imran & Alharthi, Majed & Abbas, Qaiser & Zain-ul-Abidin, Syed, 2020. "The role of forest resources, mineral resources, and oil extraction in economic progress of developing Asian economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Xiaobin, Wang & Wu, Fuxi & Alharthi, Majed & Raza, Syed Muhammad Faraz & Albalawi, Olayan, 2024. "Natural resources, trade and fintech in the era of digitalization: A study of economies involved in Belt and Road Initiative," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    15. Robert McNown & Chung Yan Sam & Soo Khoon Goh, 2018. "Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1509-1521, March.
    16. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    17. Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 671-693, October.
    18. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
    19. Barreto, Raul A., 2018. "Fossil fuels, alternative energy and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 196-220.
    20. Sam, Chung Yan & McNown, Robert & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2019. "An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 130-141.
    21. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    22. Yang, Lu, 2019. "Connectedness of economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks in a time domain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-233.
    23. Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2018. "How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 305-325.
    24. Barış Soybilgen & Huseyin Kaya & Dincer Dedeoglu, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 717-725.
    25. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    26. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad & Ahad, Muhammad & Tahir, Iqbal, 2018. "Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 223-232.
    27. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    28. Alvin Camba & Guanie Lim & Kevin Gallagher, 2022. "Leading sector and dual economy: how Indonesia and Malaysia mobilised Chinese capital in mineral processing," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 2375-2395, October.
    29. Rabia Akram & Fengyi Ai & Mohit Srivastava & Ridhima Sharma, 2024. "Considering Natural Gas Rents, Mineral Rents, Mineral Depletion, and Natural Resources Depletion as New Determinants of Sustainable Development," Post-Print hal-04846844, HAL.
    30. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2016. "Does uncertainty move the gold price? New evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-80.
    31. Lei, Xiying & Yang, Yao & Alharthi, Majed & Rasul, Farhat & Faraz Raza, Syed Muhammad, 2022. "Immense reliance on natural resources and environmental challenges in G-20 economies through the lens of COP-26 targets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    32. Meng, Lingyan & Li, Jinshi, 2024. "Natural resources volatility and geopolitical risk: A novel perspective of oil and mineral rents using quantile-quantile regression for China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    33. Mokni, Khaled & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Youssef, Manel, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic connectedness between oil price shocks and gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    34. Lyu, Yongjian & Tuo, Siwei & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility：New evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    35. Li, Qingwei & He, Huiming & Oskenbayev, Yessengali & Ullah, Ihsan, 2024. "Exploring the nexus of geopolitical risk, green financing, and natural resource rents: A study of Russia's economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    36. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    37. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
    38. Huang, Yongming & Faraz Raza, Syed Muhammad & Usman, Muhammad, 2023. "Asymmetric role of natural resources dependence, industrialization, and foreign direct investment in China’s economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    39. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    40. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Kazeem O. Isah & Abdulfatai A. Adedeji, 2018. "Inclusive growth, human capital development and natural resource rent in SSA," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 29-48, February.
    41. Banerjee, Piyali & Arčabić, Vladimir & Lee, Hyejin, 2017. "Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from Crude Oil Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 114-124.
    42. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    43. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Leilei & Yu, Hang & Tu, Yanhong, 2023. "Does Geopolitical risk drive natural resources extraction globally? A Case of Global," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    44. Erdogan, Sinan & Pata, Ugur Korkut & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik, 2024. "The effectiveness of geopolitical risk, load capacity factor, and urbanization on natural resource rent: Evidence from top ten oil supplier countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    45. Syed, Qasim Raza & Durani, Farah & Kisswani, Khalid M. & Alola, Andrew Adewale & Siddiqui, Aaliyah & Anwar, Ahsan, 2024. "Testing natural resource curse hypothesis amidst geopolitical risk: Global evidence using novel Fourier augmented ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    46. Akram, Rabia & Ai, Fengyi & Srivastava, Mohit & Sharma, Ridhima, 2024. "Considering natural gas rents, mineral rents, mineral depletion, and natural resources depletion as new determinants of sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    47. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2019. "Volatility forecasting in commodity markets using macro uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 79-94.
    48. Goh, Eric & Effendi, Shahar, 2017. "Overview of an effective governance policy for mineral resource sustainability in Malaysia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-6.
    49. Enders, Walter & Lee, Junsoo, 2012. "The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 196-199.
    50. Arezki, Rabah & Brückner, Markus, 2011. "Oil rents, corruption, and state stability: Evidence from panel data regressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 955-963.
    51. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    52. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    53. Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Schinckus, Christophe & Thanh, Su Dinh, 2020. "The natural resources rents: Is economic complexity a solution for resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    54. Olanipekun, Ifedolapo Olabisi & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2020. "Crude oil production in the Persian Gulf amidst geopolitical risk, cost of damage and resources rents: Is there asymmetric inference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Zhou, Bingjun & Huang, Yan & Gao, Ke & Luo, Chunyang, 2024. "How geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty impact coal, natural gas, and oil rent? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Syed, Qasim Raza & Durani, Farah & Kisswani, Khalid M. & Alola, Andrew Adewale & Siddiqui, Aaliyah & Anwar, Ahsan, 2024. "Testing natural resource curse hypothesis amidst geopolitical risk: Global evidence using novel Fourier augmented ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    5. Pan, Lijun & Wang, Yangjie & Sun, Xiaofei & Sadiq, Muhammad & Dagestani, Abd Alwahed, 2023. "Natural resources: A determining factor of geopolitical risk in Russia? Revisiting conflict-based perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2022. "The effect of oil rent on economic development in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the role of globalization and the international geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muchun Wan & Qasim Raza Syed, 2025. "Does geopolitical risk impact the natural resources—Economic growth nexus?," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 29-43, February.
    8. Naif Alsagr & Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor, 2020. "Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 305-314.
    9. Chen, Jiamin & Chen, Yuwei, 2024. "Does natural resources rent promote carbon neutrality: The role of digital finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Rasool Dehghanzadeh Shahabad & Mehmet Balcilar, 2022. "Modelling the Dynamic Interaction between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commodity Prices in India: The Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Adeniyi Adeosun, Opeoluwa & Anagreh, Suhaib & Tabash, Mosab I. & Adedokun, Adebayo, 2023. "Revisiting the connectedness between oil prices and uncertainty indicators in BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    15. Kisswani, Khalid M., 2021. "(A)symmetric time-varying effects of uncertainty fluctuations on oil price volatility: A nonlinear ARDL investigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Aimer, Najmi & Lusta, Abdulmula, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on economic policy uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    18. António Afonso & José Alves & João Jalles & Sofia Monteiro & João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Energy Price Dynamics in the Face of Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Global Cross-Country Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 11384, CESifo.
    19. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy transition; Fossil fuels; ASEAN-5; Critical minerals; Mining; Natural resource management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:100:y:2025:i:c:s030142072400816x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.