IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v49y2025i1p29-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does geopolitical risk impact the natural resources—Economic growth nexus?

Author

Listed:
  • Shabir Mohsin Hashmi
  • Muchun Wan
  • Qasim Raza Syed

Abstract

The existing literature on resource economics extensively probes the validity of the natural resource curse hypothesis; nevertheless, the empirical evidence at the global scale is relatively sparse. Further, the literature ignores the combined impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) and natural resources (NRR) on economic growth (EG). Based on this, we examine whether the natural resource curse hypothesis holds at the global level. Moreover, we investigate the combined impact of NRR and GPR on EG. We adopt the novel Fourier‐augmented ARDL method to provide reliable outcomes. The results delineate that NRR upsurge EG, thereby invalidating the resource curse hypothesis. Contrarily, the combined impact of NRR and GPR on EG is negative, thus, validating the resource curse hypothesis. We recommend a series of policy suggestions based on the outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muchun Wan & Qasim Raza Syed, 2025. "Does geopolitical risk impact the natural resources—Economic growth nexus?," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 29-43, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:1:p:29-43
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-8947.12372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12372
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1477-8947.12372?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2010. "Trade policies, institutions and the natural resource curse," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1443-1451.
    3. Nawaz, Kishwar & Lahiani, Amine & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Natural resources as blessings and finance-growth nexus: A bootstrap ARDL approach in an emerging economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 277-287.
    4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(4), pages 570-615, August.
    5. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    6. Chigbu Ezeji E. & Ubah Chijindu Promise & Chigbu Uzoamaka S., 2015. "Impact of Capital Inflows on Economic Growth of Developing Countries," International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 1(7), pages 7-21, June.
    7. Ampofo, Gideon Kwaku Minua & Cheng, Jinhua & Asante, Daniel Akwasi & Bosah, Philip, 2020. "Total natural resource rents, trade openness and economic growth in the top mineral-rich countries: New evidence from nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Destek, Mehmet Akif & Okumus, Ilyas & Sinha, Avik, 2019. "An empirical note on comparison between resource abundance and resource dependence in resource abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    10. Auty, Richard M., 1994. "Industrial policy reform in six large newly industrializing countries: The resource curse thesis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 11-26, January.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Robert McNown & Chung Yan Sam & Soo Khoon Goh, 2018. "Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1509-1521, March.
    13. Belaid, Fateh & Dagher, Leila & Filis, George, 2021. "Revisiting the resource curse in the MENA region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    15. Sam, Chung Yan & McNown, Robert & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2019. "An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 130-141.
    16. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Farooq, Abdul & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Empirical evidence on the resource curse hypothesis in oil abundant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-429.
    18. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Szulczyk, Kenneth R. & Zahra, Samia & Mukherjee, Tanusree Chakravarty, 2023. "Innovation dynamics in the natural resource curse hypothesis: A new perspective from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Qiang, Qiu & Jian, Chen, 2020. "Natural resource endowment, institutional quality and China's regional economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Kishwar Nawaz & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2019. "Natural resources as blessings and finance-growth nexus: A bootstrap ARDL approach in an emerging economy," Post-Print hal-03532512, HAL.
    21. Ansari, Dawud, 2016. "Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 444-454.
    22. Zhao, Zuoxiang & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Patel, Gupteswar & Khalfaoui, Rabeh, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on renewable energy demand in OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    23. Yilanci, Veli & Aslan, Murat & Ozgur, Onder, 2021. "Disaggregated analysis of the curse of natural resources in most natural resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    24. Artatrana Ratha & Masoud Moghaddam, 2020. "Remittances and the Dutch disease phenomenon: evidence from the bounds error correction modelling and a panel space," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(30), pages 3327-3336, June.
    25. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political economy of resource-driven growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 839-846, May.
    26. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
    27. W. W. Rostow, 1959. "The Stages Of Economic Growth," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, August.
    28. Asif, Muhammad & Khan, Khan Burhan & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Abro, Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi & Zaman, Khalid, 2020. "Dynamic interaction between financial development and natural resources: Evaluating the ‘Resource curse’ hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    29. Khan, Zeeshan & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Nawaz, Kishwar, 2022. "Natural resources and economic performance: Evaluating the role of political risk and renewable energy consumption," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    30. Ning Ding & Barry C. Field, 2005. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growths," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(4).
    31. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2005. "Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 625-633, August.
    32. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    33. Enders, Walter & Lee, Junsoo, 2012. "The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 196-199.
    34. Renato Santiago & Matheus Koengkan & José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques, 2020. "The relationship between public capital stock, private capital stock and economic growth in the Latin American and Caribbean countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 293-317, September.
    35. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2013. "Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 337-351.
    36. Jon Phillips & Elena Hailwood & Andrew Brooks, 2016. "Sovereignty, the ‘resource curse’ and the limits of good governance: a political economy of oil in Ghana," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(147), pages 26-42, January.
    37. Lin, Shu & Yuan, Ying, 2023. "China's resources curse hypothesis: Evaluating the role of green innovation and green growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    38. Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamics between economic growth, labor, capital and natural resource abundance in Iran: An application of the combined cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 213-221.
    39. Mohammad Imdadul Haque & Bashir Umar Faruk & Mohammad Rumzi Tausif, 2022. "Growth-finance nexus in oil abundant GCC countries of MENA region," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2087646-208, December.
    40. Li, Yurog & Cong, Zhenglong & Xie, Yufan & Wang, Yan & Wang, Hongmei, 2022. "The relationship between green finance, economic factors, geopolitical risk and natural resources commodity prices: Evidence from five most natural resources holding countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Syed, Qasim Raza & Durani, Farah & Kisswani, Khalid M. & Alola, Andrew Adewale & Siddiqui, Aaliyah & Anwar, Ahsan, 2024. "Testing natural resource curse hypothesis amidst geopolitical risk: Global evidence using novel Fourier augmented ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Wang, Zhe & Teng, Yin-Pei & Wu, Shuzhao & Liu, Yuxiang & Liu, Xianchang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial system and natural resources extraction: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal,, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    5. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal, Faisal & Bazhair, Ayman Hassan & Sulimany, Hamid Ghazi H & Rahman, Sami Ur, 2024. "Does escaping the natural resource curse complement evading the financial resource curse too? Empirical evidence from Indonesia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 539-555.
    6. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Muhammad Atif Khan & Muhammad Asif Khan & Kishwar Ali & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Natural Resource Rent and Finance: The Moderation Role of Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2023. "Natural resource curse: A literature survey and comparative assessment of regional groupings of oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Kumar, Nitish, 2024. "Natural resources and economic growth: Examining the role of globalization, financial development, and digitalization in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Naseer, Ahsan & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Li, Jing-Ping, 2020. "Double jeopardy of resources and investment curse in South Asia: Is technology the only way out?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Li, Kaixian & Wang, Dongyu & Xu, Tong & Zhang, Yuqi, 2024. "Financial development and resource-curse hypothesis: Moderating role of internal and external conflict in the MENA region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Ozcan, Burcu & Temiz, Mehmet & Gültekin Tarla, Esma, 2023. "The resource curse phenomenon in the case of precious metals: A panel evidence from top 19 exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Yilanci, Veli & Aslan, Murat & Ozgur, Onder, 2021. "Disaggregated analysis of the curse of natural resources in most natural resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Cheng, Zhonghua & Li, Lianshui & Liu, Jun, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, resource industry dependence and economic green growth in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Sun, Yanpeng & Ak, Aysegul & Serener, Berna & Xiong, Deping, 2020. "Natural resource abundance and financial development: A case study of emerging seven (E−7) economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Destek, Gamze & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Aydın, Sercan & Destek, Mehmet Akif, 2023. "Can the resource curse be reversed through financialization, human capital, and institutional quality? Evidence from Sustainable Development Index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    18. Wei, Hua & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Ahmad, Ferhana & Zhang, Yuchen, 2020. "Resource cursed or resource blessed? The role of investment and energy prices in G7 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Ramez Abubakr Badeeb & Jeremy Clark & Abey P. Philip, 2021. "The Nonlinear Effects of Oil Rent Dependence on Malaysian Manufacturing: Implications from Structural Change using a Markov-Regime Switching Model," Working Papers in Economics 21/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    20. Hwang, Young Kyu & Díez, Ángeles Sánchez & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula, 2024. "The effects of critical mineral endowments on green economic growth in Latin America," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:1:p:29-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.