IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemwp/310388.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty and Stock Returns in Energy Markets: A Quantile Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Cedic, Samir
  • Mahmoud, Alwan
  • Manera, Matteo
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between different types of uncertainty and stock returns of the renewable energy and the oil & gas sectors. We use the quantile regression approach developed by Koenker and d’Orey (1987; 1994) to assess which uncertainties are the potential drivers of stock returns under different market conditions. We find that the bioenergy and the oil & gas sectors are most sensitive to uncertainties. Both sectors are affected by financial, euro currency, geopolitical and economic policy uncertainties. Our results have several policy implications. Climate policy makers can prioritize policies that support bioenergy in order to reduce the potentially negative effects of uncertainties on bioenergy investment. Investors aiming to diversify their portfolio should be aware that many uncertainties are common drivers of bioenergy and oil & gas returns, the connectedness between assets of these energy types could therefore increase when uncertainty increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Cedic, Samir & Mahmoud, Alwan & Manera, Matteo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2021. "Uncertainty and Stock Returns in Energy Markets: A Quantile Regression Approach," FEEM Working Papers 310388, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemwp:310388
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.310388
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/310388/files/NDL2021-011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.310388?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Kartick, 2017. "Do economic and societal factors influence the financial performance of alternative energy firms?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 172-182.
    2. Evangelos Kyritsis and Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(The New E).
    3. Hany Abdel-Latif & Mahmoud El-Gamal, 2019. "Antecedents of war: the geopolitics of low oil prices and decelerating financial liquidity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 765-769, May.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Pham, Linh, 2019. "Do all clean energy stocks respond homogeneously to oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 355-379.
    6. Boying Li & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu & Bo Sui, 2020. "Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 492-516, May.
    7. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2012. "Are public policies towards renewables successful? Evidence from European countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 109-118.
    8. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Ahmed, Ali, 2019. "Cross-quantilogram-based correlation and dependence between renewable energy stock and other asset classes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 743-759.
    9. Diaz, Elena Maria & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2017. "Oil price shocks and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 75-80.
    10. Roger W. Koenker & Vasco D'Orey, 1987. "Computing Regression Quantiles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 36(3), pages 383-393, November.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    12. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sarit Maitra, 2023. "Impact of Economic Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, Pandemic, Financial & Macroeconomic Factors on Crude Oil Returns -- An Empirical Investigation," Papers 2310.01123, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samir Cedic & Alwan Mahmoud & Matteo Manera & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Information Diffusion and Spillover Dynamics in Renewable Energy Markets," Working Papers 2021.10, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    3. Tiantian Liu & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Spillovers to Renewable Energy Stocks in the US and Europe: Are They Different?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-28, June.
    4. Xiaohui Zhao, 2020. "Do the stock returns of clean energy corporations respond to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Yang, Kun & Wei, Yu & Li, Shouwei & Liu, Liang & Wang, Lei, 2021. "Global financial uncertainties and China’s crude oil futures market: Evidence from interday and intraday price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Li, Zhenghui & Zhong, Junhao, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on China's financial conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    8. Linh Pham, 2021. "How Integrated are Regional Green Equity Markets? Evidence from a Cross-Quantilogram Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-58, January.
    9. Urom, C. & Mzoughi, Hela & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, K., 2022. "Dynamic dependence between clean investments and economic policy uncertainty," MERIT Working Papers 2022-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Ivanovski, Kris & Hailemariam, Abebe, 2022. "Time-varying geopolitical risk and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 206-221.
    11. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Rothovius, Timo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "Climate risk and green investments: New evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    12. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Navarre, Jeremy T. & Frazier, Jeremy A., 2022. "Econometric analysis of factors influencing commercial helicopter operators’ stock returns in the gulf of Mexico," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Kumar, Satish & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk improve the directional predictability from oil to stock returns? Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    17. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Robert Nash & He (Helen) Wang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and insider trading," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 817-854, December.
    19. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Yousaf, Imran & Beljid, Makram & Chaibi, Anis & Ajlouni, Ahmed AL, 2022. "Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemwp:310388. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.