IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v153y2026ics0140988325008849.html

The global geopolitical-energy uncertainty index and total factor productivity: New evidence from firm-level analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat
  • Balli, Faruk
  • Balli, Hatice Ozer
  • Qiu, Mei
  • Nguyen, Hannah

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the global geopolitical-energy uncertainty (GEU) on firm-level total factor productivity, considering variation across countries, industries, and firm sizes. Employing the novel GEU index proposed by Dang et al. (2024a) and firm-level annual data from 2001 to 2023, we find strong evidence that the GEU index negatively affects firm productivity. There is heterogeneity in the GEU index's impact. Firms in developed countries such as the US, UK, France, and Germany are more negatively affected, whereas Canadian firms show a positive response. Energy-intensive firms and smaller firms experience stronger negative impacts. Mechanism analysis further demonstrates that both firm level characteristics and macroeconomic energy conditions shape productivity responses to GEU. Higher profitability reduces the negative impact of GEU shocks, while higher cost intensity and higher global energy prices amplify the adverse effects, increasing productivity losses. Our baseline results remain robust under different robustness checks. The paper's findings offer guidance for firms to develop effective strategies to manage risks during periods of heightened geopolitical-energy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Qiu, Mei & Nguyen, Hannah, 2026. "The global geopolitical-energy uncertainty index and total factor productivity: New evidence from firm-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s0140988325008849
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325008849
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s0140988325008849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.