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Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints

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We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment—such as on ICT capital—which is more subject to liquidity risks (Aghion et al., 2010). The effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth of 25 industries from 18 advanced economies over the period 1985-2010—mitigates concerns with omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The results are robust to the inclusion of other sources of interaction effects, instrumental variable approaches, and different datasets. The results also hold if economic policy uncertainty (Baker et al., 2016) is used instead of stock market volatility as a measure of aggregate uncertainty.

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  • Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Yi Huang & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints," IHEID Working Papers 09-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp09-2017
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    2. Wang, Yabin, 2018. "Fickle capital flows and retrenchment: Evidence from bilateral banking data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-21.
    3. Sangyup Choi & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," Working papers 2019rwp-142, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Margherita Bottero, 2017. "Bank lending in uncertain times," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1109, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Jin, Peizhen & Peng, Chong & Song, Malin, 2019. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, high-level innovation, and urban green development performance in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows: The Role of Institutional Quality and Financial Development," Working papers 2019rwp-144, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    8. Michalô °€ Brzozowski, 2020. "Impact of Credit Market Development and Stability on Productivity: New Evidence from the Industry Level," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 21(1), pages 111-129, May.
    9. Furceri Davide & Jalles João Tovar, 2019. "Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    11. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    12. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    13. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 7900, CESifo.
    14. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Stabilization and Growth; Evidence from Industry-level Data for Advanced and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 17/198, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    16. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    17. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2019. "Inflation Anchoring, Real Borrowing Costs, and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data," Working papers 2019rwp-143, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    18. Marta Martínez-Matute & Alberto Urtasun, 2018. "Uncertainty, firm heterogeneity and labour adjustments. Evidence from European countries," Working Papers 1821, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    19. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2018. "Volatility spillovers among uncertainty measures. The case of EU member states," MPRA Paper 90319, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity growth; financial dependence; uncertainty; information and communication technology investment.;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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