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Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth; The Role of Credit Constraints

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  • Sangyup Choi
  • Davide Furceri
  • Yi Huang
  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. This effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth for 25 industries for 18 advanced economies over the period 1985-2010—mitigates concerns with omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The results are robust to the inclusion of other sources of interaction effects, such as financial development (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) and counter-cyclical fiscal policy (Aghion et al., 2014). The results also hold if economic policy uncertainty (Baker et al., 2015) is used instead of stock market volatility as the measure of aggregate uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Yi Huang & Prakash Loungani, 2016. "Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth; The Role of Credit Constraints," IMF Working Papers 2016/174, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/174
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Total factor productivity; Productivity; Labor productivity; Stock markets; Output gap; WP; external finance; TFP growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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