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Modeling and Predicting the EUR/USD Exchange Rate: The Role of Nonlinear Adjustments to Purchasing Power Parity

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    () (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Anna Orthofer

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

Reliable medium-term forecasts are essential for forward-looking monetary policy decisionmaking. Traditionally, predictions of the exchange rate tend to be linked to the equilibrium concept implied by the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory. In particular, the traditional benchmark for exchange rate models is based on a linear adjustment of the exchange rate to the level implied by PPP. In the presence of aggregation effects, transaction costs or uncertainty, however, economic theory predicts that the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate around the equilibrium value implied by PPP are nonlinear. This paper presents some of the shortcomings of the traditional linear exchange rate models and assesses whether alternative nonlinear formulations outperform them for forecasting purposes. We find that the theory of nonlinear adjustment to PPP is supported by the data in a threshold cointegration framework for the monthly EUR/USD exchange rate between 1990 and 2010. Furthermore, sizeable gains in terms of medium-term forecast accuracy can be obtained using nonlinear specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Orthofer, 2010. "Modeling and Predicting the EUR/USD Exchange Rate: The Role of Nonlinear Adjustments to Purchasing Power Parity," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 64-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2010:i:2:b:4
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:1c2365b4-915b-42fe-875a-c0801600cafe/mop_2010_q2_analyses04_tcm16-198123.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul G. J. O'Connell & Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. ""The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall": How Price Differences Across U.S. Cities Are Arbitraged," NBER Working Papers 6089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; purchasing power parity; nonlinearity; threshold models;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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