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Why Don’t Oil Shocks Cause Inflation? Evidence from Disaggregate Inflation Data

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  • LANCE J. BACHMEIER
  • INKYUNG CHA

Abstract

This paper uses disaggregate U.S. inflation data to evaluate explanations for the breakdown of the relationship between oil price shocks and consumer price inflation. A data set with measures of inflation, energy intensity, labor intensity, and sensitivity to monetary policy is constructed for 97 sectors that make up core CPI inflation. A comparison of the 1973–85 and 1986–2006 time periods reveals that substitution away from energy use in production and monetary policy were both important, with approximately two‐thirds of the change in response of inflation to oil shocks being due to reduced energy usage, and one‐third to monetary policy. We find no evidence that other factors, such as changes in wage rigidities or changes in the persistence of oil shocks, played a role.

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  • Lance J. Bachmeier & Inkyung Cha, 2011. "Why Don’t Oil Shocks Cause Inflation? Evidence from Disaggregate Inflation Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1165-1183, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:6:p:1165-1183
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00421.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Papers 2312, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Functional Oil Price Expectations Shocks and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10998, CESifo.
    4. Atems, Bebonchu & Mette, Jehu & Lin, Guoyu & Madraki, Golshan, 2023. "Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Tumala, Mohammed M. & Salisu, Afees A. & Gambo, Ali I., 2023. "Disentangled oil shocks and stock market volatility in Nigeria and South Africa: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 707-717.
    6. Zaidi, Syed Anees Haider & Ashraf, Rana Umair & Hassan, Taimoor, 2024. "Effects of globalization and financial inclusion on energy intensity: The case of emerging economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    7. Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(6), pages 221-248, November.
    8. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2022-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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