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Reassessing the Oil Security Premium


  • Brown, Stephen P.A.

    () (Resources for the Future)

  • Huntington, Hillard G.


World oil supply disruptions lead to U.S. economic losses. Because oil is fungible in an integrated world oil market, increased oil consumption, whether from domestic or imported sources, increases the economic losses associated with oil supply disruptions. Nevertheless, increased U.S. oil production expands stable supplies and dampens oil price shocks, whereas increased U.S. oil imports boosts the share of world oil supply that comes from unstable producers and exacerbates oil price shocks. Some of the economic losses associated with oil supply disruptions—gross domestic product losses and some transfers abroad—are externalities that can be quantified as oil security premiums. To estimate such premiums for domestic and imported oil, we take into account projected world oil market conditions, probable oil supply disruptions, the market response to oil supply disruptions, and the resulting U.S. economic losses. Our estimates quantify the security externalities associated with increased oil use, which derive from the expected U.S. economic losses resulting from potential disruptions in world oil supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, Stephen P.A. & Huntington, Hillard G., 2010. "Reassessing the Oil Security Premium," Discussion Papers dp-10-05, Resources For the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-10-05

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Proost, Stef & Van Dender, Kurt, 2012. "Energy and environment challenges in the transport sector," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 77-87.
    2. Grabowsky, Sonja & Miethe, Ingrid & Kranz, Dani, 2013. "Widening Participation-Maßnahmen und Outreach-Programmes für non-traditional Students in England," Arbeitspapiere 294, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    3. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P., 2012. "Modelling and analysis of oil import tariff and stockpile policies for coping with supply disruptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 84-90.
    4. Colgan, Jeff, 2011. "Oil and resource-backed aggression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1669-1676, March.
    5. Parry, Ian & Strand, Jon, 2012. "International fuel tax assessment: an application to Chile," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 127-144, April.
    6. Soren T. Anderson & Ian W. H. Parry & James M. Sallee & Carolyn Fischer, 2011. "Automobile Fuel Economy Standards: Impacts, Efficiency, and Alternatives," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 89-108, Winter.
    7. Brennan, Timothy J. & Palmer, Karen L., 2013. "Energy efficiency resource standards: Economics and policy," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 58-68.
    8. Parry, Ian W.H. & Evans, David & Oates, Wallace E., 2014. "Are energy efficiency standards justified?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 104-125.
    9. Leiby, Paul N. & Rubin, Jonathan, 2013. "Energy security implications of a national low carbon fuel standard," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-40.

    More about this item


    oil markets; energy security; oil prices; economic activity;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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