IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Ethanol and Energy Security

  • Peter Maniloff

    ()

    (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines)

I propose a framework to evaluate the impact of ethanol on energy security from an economic perspective. In this model, economic energy efficiency maximizes a social or governmental objective function with respect to energy price levels and shocks. This tradeoff can entail raising expected energy prices while lowering price volatility. I develop a theoretical model showing ethanol's potential to lower overall fuel price volatility and estimate this relationship with both structural and reduced form approaches. I show that ethanol does not substantially lower U.S. gasoline price volatility or insulate gasoline prices from oil shocks in the absence of a binding quantity mandate. Ethanol can lower gasoline price volatility under a binding mandate, but this comes at substantial expected cost. In sum, ethanol is not an effective way to mitigate world oil price shocks and does not substantially enhance US energy security.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econbus.mines.edu/working-papers/wp201310.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business in its series Working Papers with number 2013-10.

as
in new window

Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201310
Contact details of provider: Postal: Golden, Colorado 80401
Phone: (303) 273-3480
Fax: (303) 273-3416
Web page: http://econbus.mines.edu/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Xiaodong Du & Dermot J. Hayes, 2008. "Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and on the Profitability of the U.S. Oil Refinery Industry, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp467, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  2. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
  4. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
  5. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
  6. Zibin Zhang & Luanne Lohr & Cesar Escalante & Michael Wetzstein, 2009. "Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 320-339, June.
  7. Du, Xiaodong & Hayes, Dermot J., 2010. "The Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. And Regional Gasoline Markets," Staff General Research Papers 31483, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Beckman, Jayson F., 2010. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 60857, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  9. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "World Supply and Demand of Food Commodity Calories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1235-1242.
  10. Meyers, William H. & Westhoff, Patrick & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2010. "The FAPRI Global Modeling System and Outlook Process," Staff General Research Papers 31534, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49188, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  12. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Zhang, Zibin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "An Ethanol Blend Wall Shift is Prone to Increase Petroleum Gasoline Demand," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98795, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  13. Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Distributional Implications of U.S. Ethanol Policy ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 533-542.
  14. Madhu Khanna & Xiaoguang Chen & Haixiao Huang & Hayri Onal, 2011. "Supply of Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks and Regional Production Pattern," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 473-480.
  15. Marc Gronwald, 2008. "Large Oil Shocks and the US Economy: Infrequent Incidents with Large Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 151-172.
  16. Parry, Ian & Darmstadter, Joel, 2003. "The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency," Discussion Papers dp-03-59, Resources For the Future.
  17. Thompson, Wyatt & Meyer, Seth & Westhoff, Pat, 2009. "How does petroleum price and corn yield volatility affect ethanol markets with and without an ethanol use mandate?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 745-749, February.
  18. Jarrett Whistance & Wyatt W. Thompson & Seth D. Meyer, 2010. "Ethanol Policy Effects on U.S. Natural Gas Prices and Quantities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 178-82, May.
  19. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Edward Balistreri)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.