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Can Long Horizon Data Beat Random Walk Under Engel-West Explanation?

Listed author(s):
  • Jian Wang

    (University of Wisconsin, Madison)

Registered author(s):

    Engel and West (2004a) provide an explanation to reconcile the random walk behavior of exchange rate and linear present value asset pricing models. In this paper, we study the long horizon property of exchange rate under Engel-West explanation. It is found that the long horizon data can not significantly improve our chance of beating random walk. This result is consistent with recent empirical studies on the long horizon exchange rate. Under E-W explanation, the change of exchange rate can be more serially correlated in the long horizon data, but this change in most cases is only marginal. Depending on the persistence of change in fundamentals, two patterns may exist between the autocorrelation of exchange rate change and the time horizon. Both of these two patterns are found existing in the real data of exchange rates. These results support E-W explanation for exchange rate puzzle.

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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/if/papers/0501/0501002.pdf
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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0501002.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 25 Jan 2005
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0501002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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    1. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
    2. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    3. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    5. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 81-91, February.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    8. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    10. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange-Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor Is Near 1," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 119-125, May.
    11. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
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