Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability mass below (or above) a given threshold value. We show how this approach can be used in real time in the presence of data publication lags and how it can capture the part of the data revision process that is systematic. Then we apply the method to US and German monthly data. In an out-of-sample exercise (for 2007-2012/13) the turning points can be signalled before the official data publication confirms them (but not before they happened in reality).
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Garystr. 21, 14195 Berlin (Dahlem)|
Phone: (030) 838 2272
Fax: (030) 838 2129
Web page: http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/en/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 0966, European Central Bank.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES 2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Heikki Kauppi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-791, November.
- Norman R. Swanson & Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez, 2011.
"Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets,"
Departmental Working Papers
201107, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 455-467.
- Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman R. Swanson, 2008. "Information in the revision process of real-time datasets," Working Papers 08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hamilton, James D., 2011.
"Calling recessions in real time,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
- Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
- Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2012. "Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 235-253, 02.
- Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
- Christian R. Proaño & Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Predicting German Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Indicator," Working Papers 1205, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
- Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
- Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
- Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992.
"A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience,"
NBER Working Papers
4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, 08.
- Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011.
"The Model Confidence Set,"
Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, 03.
- Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
- John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2012. "Assessing gross domestic product and inflation probability forecasts derived from Bank of England fan charts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(3), pages 713-727, 07.
- Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.