IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddgw/356.html

Estimation of Impulse Response Functions When Shocks are Observed at a Higher Frequency than Outcome Variables

Author

Abstract

This paper proposes mixed-frequency distributed-lag (MFDL) estimators of impulse response functions (IRFs) in a setup where (i) the shock of interest is observed, (ii) the impact variable of interest is observed at a lower frequency (as a temporally aggregated or sequentially sampled variable), (iii) the data-generating process (DGP) is given by a VAR model at the frequency of the shock, and (iv) the full set of relevant endogenous variables entering the DGP is unknown or unobserved. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed MFDL estimators is established, and their small-sample performance is documented by a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The proposed approach is then applied to estimate the daily pass-through of changes in crude oil prices observed at a daily frequency to U.S. gasoline consumer prices observed at a weekly frequency. We find that the pass-through is fast, with about 28% of the crude oil price changes passed through to retail gasoline prices within five working days, and that the speed of the pass-through has increased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Chudik & Georgios Georgiadis, 2019. "Estimation of Impulse Response Functions When Shocks are Observed at a Higher Frequency than Outcome Variables," Globalization Institute Working Papers 356, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:356
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2019/0356.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24149/gwp356?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Mixed frequency structural vector auto-regressive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(2), pages 403-425, February.
    2. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    3. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Bastianin, Andrea & Missale, Alessandro & Rossi, Eduardo, 2016. "Structural analysis with mixed frequencies: monetary policy, uncertainty and gross capital flows," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016-04, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    5. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    6. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    8. Choi, Chi-Young & Chudik, Alexander, 2019. "Estimating impulse response functions when the shock series is observed," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 71-75.
    9. Ghysels, Eric, 2016. "Macroeconomics and the reality of mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 294-314.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: A daily identification approach," Working Papers 61, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alexander Chudik & Lutz Kilian, 2026. "Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks," Working Papers 2603, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Alejandro Vicondoa & Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "Bridge Proxy-SVAR: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks Identified at High-Frequency," Documentos de Trabajo 533, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    6. Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Vatsa, Puneet & Pino, Gabriel, 2024. "Do petrol prices affect inflation and inflation expectations? Evidence from New Zealand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Patozi, A., 2023. "Green Transmission: Monetary Policy in the Age of ESG," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2023. "Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 325-356, June.
    3. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    4. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    5. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2025. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 380-394, June.
    6. repec:aen:journl:ej36-3-barunik is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
    8. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2012. "Local Linear Impulse Responses for a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 470-492, June.
    9. Alexander Chudik & Lutz Kilian, 2026. "Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks," Working Papers 2603, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Does monetary policy affect income inequality in the euro area?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 61, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2019. "The Size of Fiscal Multipliers in India: A State Level Analysis Using Panel Vector Autoregression Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(6), pages 1393-1406, December.
    12. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "When do common time series estimands have nonparametric causal meaning?," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    14. Awartani, Basel & Aktham, Maghyereh & Cherif, Guermat, 2016. "The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 56-69.
    15. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
    16. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Chingnun & Wang, Tzu-Wei, 2011. "A re-examination on dissecting the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-586, April.
    17. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    18. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Samia Nasreen & Subhan Ullah & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Analysing spillover between returns and volatility series of oil across major stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2458-2490, April.
    19. Alejandro López-Vera & Andr�s D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodr�guez-Ni�o, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64.
    20. Tarkun, Savaş, 2025. "The only constant is change: Evidence on the declining role of fossil fuels and the rise of strategic metals in energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    21. Jozef Baruník & Evžen KoÄ enda b,a & Lukáš Vácha, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 136-158, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.