IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/35883.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How important are real interest rates for oil prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Arora, Vipin
  • Tanner, Matthew

Abstract

Using a recursive vector autoregression (VAR), this paper considers the relation between the U.S. real interest rate and the real oil price. Theoretically, as outlined in Hotelling (1931) and Working (1949), a lower real interest rate results in reduced production and increased storage, implying a higher oil price. The results presented here show that the robustness of this relationship depends crucially on how the real interest rate is calculated, and the time-frame of the sample. Consistent with earlier studies, the oil price falls with an innovation to the ex-ante U.S. real interest rate. However, this is not true if the real interest rate is calculated ex-post. In this case, the oil price only falls in response to an innovation in short-term U.S. real interest rates (three months or less). Additionally, the response of the oil price to longer-term ex-ante U.S. real interest rates must include the period through 2006 for this relationship to appear. The oil price consistently responds to innovations in short-term rates throughout the entire sample. We draw two conclusions from the results. The first is that the oil price is consistently responsive to short-term U.S. real interest rates, underlying the importance of storage. Second, oil prices have become more responsive to longer-term U.S. real interest rates. The reasons behind this change are unclear and require further study.

Suggested Citation

  • Arora, Vipin & Tanner, Matthew, 2011. "How important are real interest rates for oil prices?," MPRA Paper 35883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35883
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35883/1/MPRA_paper_35883.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    2. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    3. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    4. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets; Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 2006/062, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Torben Hendricks, 2010. "Global liquidity and commodity prices-a cointegrated VAR approach for OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 227-242.
    6. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.
    7. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    10. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
    11. Vipin Arora, 2011. "Asset Value, Interest Rates and Oil Price Volatility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(s1), pages 45-55, September.
    12. Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2010. "The relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates," Kiel Working Papers 1637, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
    16. Shi, Shuping & Arora, Vipin, 2012. "An application of models of speculative behaviour to oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 469-472.
    17. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    18. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-291, April.
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    2. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates: Evidence from a wavelet-based approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2018. "The zero lower bound and market spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-123.
    4. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    5. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    6. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
    7. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    8. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
    9. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    10. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    11. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.
    12. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    13. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Cooray, Arusha, 2020. "Monetary policy and commodity markets: Unconventional versus conventional impact and the role of economic uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Klotz, Philipp & Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2014. "Global commodity prices, economic activity and monetary policy: The relevance of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Speculative behaviour and oil price predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 128-136.
    18. Güntner, Jochen H. F., 2014. "How Do International Stock Markets Respond To Oil Demand And Supply Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(8), pages 1657-1682, December.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11382 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    21. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Real interest rate; VAR; Hotelling; Storage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35883. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.