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Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?

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  • Arora, Vipin
  • Tanner, Matthew

Abstract

We show that the robustness of an inverse relationship between the real interest rate and real oil price depends crucially on how the real interest rate is calculated, and the time-frame of the sample. Consistent with earlier studies, we find that the oil price falls with an unexpected rise in either U.S. or international ex-ante real interest rates. When the ex-post real interest rate is used, the oil price only falls with rises to short-term rates (3months or less). Additionally, the response of the oil price to long-term ex-ante real interest rates must include the period through the mid-2000s for the inverse relationship to appear. In contrast, the oil price consistently falls with unexpected rises in short-term real interest rates throughout the entire sample. We draw two conclusions from the results. The first is that the oil price is consistently responsive to short-term U.S. and international real interest rates, underlying the importance of storage. Second, oil prices have become more responsive to long-term real interest rates over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Arora, Vipin & Tanner, Matthew, 2013. "Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-555.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:546-555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    2. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1165-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:547-558 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Yin, Libo & Yang, Qingyuan, 2016. "Predicting the oil prices: Do technical indicators help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 338-350.
    5. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Pricing Performance in Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives: Do Models with Stochastic Interest Rates Matter?," Research Paper Series 367, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:409-418 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    8. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.
    9. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2014. "The impact of the Euro area macroeconomy on energy and non-energy global commodity prices," MPRA Paper 56663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, André Varella & Nguyen, Khoa Huu, 2016. "U.S. stock markets and the role of real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 231-242.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Real interest rate; VAR; Hotelling; Storage;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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