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Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?


  • Doyle, Matthew


Recent work on U.S. data calls into question the ability of simple Phillips curve models to forecast inflation. This paper asks whether there is similar evidence of a breakdown in the forecasting ability of Phillips curve models in other OECD countries. The results suggests that the ability of a Phillips curve to out-forecast simpler models has deteriorated in many OECD countries. The evidence is less clear as to whether this breakdown can be attributed to structural breaks in the parameters of the Phillips curve

Suggested Citation

  • Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12684

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

    More about this item


    Phillips curve; structural breaks; forecast breakdown;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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