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Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?

  • Doyle, Matthew

Recent work on U.S. data calls into question the ability of simple Phillips curve models to forecast inflation. This paper asks whether there is similar evidence of a breakdown in the forecasting ability of Phillips curve models in other OECD countries. The results suggests that the ability of a Phillips curve to out-forecast simpler models has deteriorated in many OECD countries. The evidence is less clear as to whether this breakdown can be attributed to structural breaks in the parameters of the Phillips curve

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12684.

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Date of creation: 25 Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12684
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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  12. Anderson Katharine & Barrow Lisa & Butcher Kristin F., 2005. "Implications of Changes in Men's and Women's Labor Force Participation for Real Compensation Growth and Inflation," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, March.
  13. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
  14. Flint Brayton & John M. Roberts & John C. Williams, 1999. "What's happened to the Phillips curve?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  18. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
  19. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  20. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
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