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Markov Switching Oil Price Uncertainty

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  • Apostolos Serletis
  • Libo Xu

Abstract

We investigate whether the United States economy responds negatively to oil price uncertainty and whether oil price shocks exert asymmetric effects on economic activity. In doing so, we relax the assumption in the existing literature that the data are governed by a single process, modifying the Elder and Serletis (2010) bivariate structural GARCH‐in‐Mean VAR to accommodate Markov regime switching in order to account for changing oil price dynamics over the sample period. We find evidence of asymmetries, against those macroeconomic theories that predict symmetries in the relationship between real aggregate economic activity and the real price of oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, 2019. "Markov Switching Oil Price Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 1045-1064, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:81:y:2019:i:5:p:1045-1064
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12300
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    1. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Snarska, Małgorzata, 2021. "The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. T. Bermpei & A. Triantafyllou, 2026. "The impact of supply and demand driven oil price uncertainty on the cost of bank loans," Post-Print hal-05535567, HAL.
    3. Dohyoung Kwon, 2025. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on US business sentiment: evidence from the ISM manufacturing index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3227-3249, December.
    4. Zhang, Qi & Di, Peng & Farnoosh, Arash, 2021. "Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    5. Tian, Maoxi & Alshater, Muneer M. & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "Dynamic risk spillovers from oil to stock markets: Fresh evidence from GARCH copula quantile regression-based CoVaR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    8. Svetlana Balashova & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Oil Price Uncertainty, Globalization, and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-11, June.
    9. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and climate risks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 323-332, June.
    10. Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Oil jump tail risk as a driver of inflation dynamics," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    11. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    12. Elder, John, 2020. "Employment and energy uncertainty," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    13. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    14. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2024. "Oil price uncertainty shocks and the gender gap in U.S. unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Carlo Mari & Emiliano Mari, 2024. "Occam’s razor, machine learning and stochastic modeling of complex systems: the case of the Italian energy market," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 1093-1111, April.
    16. Aaron D. Smallwood, 2022. "Inference in Misspecified GARCH‐M Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 334-355, April.
    17. Elder, John, 2021. "Canadian industry level production and energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    18. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2023. "Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    19. Payne, James E. & Nazlioglu, Saban & Koncak, Ahmet & Ewing, Bradley T., 2025. "U.S. climate policy uncertainty shocks and the growth in renewable energy production," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    20. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, 2023. "The oil price-macroeconomy dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2501-2520, December.
    21. Bermpei, Theodora & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2025. "Supply and Demand shocks: the short-term and long-term drivers of oil price uncertainty," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).

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