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Monetary policy during financial crises: Is the transmission mechanism impaired?

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  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Potjagailo, Galina
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy during financial crises using a Bayesian panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for 20 advanced economies. We interact all of the endogenous variables with financial crisis dummies, which are constructed using the narrative approach. We also distinguish between an acute initial phase of financial crises and a subsequent recovery phase. We show that an expansionary monetary policy shock has large positive effects on output and inflation during the acute phase of a financial crisis. These effects are larger than those during non-crisis periods. Decreased uncertainty as well as increases in consumer confidence and share prices explain these large effects, whereas these variables are much less relevant for monetary policy transmission outside financial crises. Counterfactual analysis shows that the transmission mechanism would be impaired without the effects of monetary policy on these variables, where credit would not react at all and the response of output would be substantially lower. During the recovery phase of a financial crisis, output and inflation are generally non-responsive to monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Monetary policy during financial crises: Is the transmission mechanism impaired?," Economics Working Papers 2015-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201504
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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies”," IREA Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    2. Nalban, 2016. "Sentiment-Driven Asymmetries in Romanian Monetary Policy Transmission," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 251-270, May.
    3. Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 4934, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. OLTEANU, Dan, 2015. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness In Stimulating The Cees Credit Recovery," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(3), pages 8-24.
    5. Llanto, Gilberto M., 2016. "Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines," Research Paper Series DP 2016-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. repec:kuk:journl:v:50:y:2017:i:4:p:455-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2016. "Business Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Germany," MPRA Paper 69162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:rba:rbaacv:acv2017-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:251-270 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Matthias Nöckel, 2016. "State-Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Research Papers in Economics 2016-15, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    11. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2017. "The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168180, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Klaus Wiener & Rolf Ketzler, 2016. "Versicherungswirtschaft und Niedrigzinsumfeld: Risiken, Nebenwirkungen und Anpassungsstrategien," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(1), pages 65-79.
    14. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“The Distributive effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies”," AQR Working Papers 201606, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Apr 2016.
    15. Llanto, Gilberto M., 2016. "Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2016-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy transmission; financial crisis; financial stability; state-dependence; uncertainty; panel VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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