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Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Tatjana Dahlhaus

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Employing a quarterly data set over the period 1970Q1 to 2009Q2 containing 108 U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series, I find that a monetary policy shock during periods of high financial stress has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, and investment than it has during “normal” times. Differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from non-linearities in the credit channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatjana Dahlhaus, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 14-21, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    5. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
    7. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1479-1505, October.
    2. Nils Jannsen & Galina Potjagailo & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 81-126, October.
    3. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States," Working Papers 202331, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Andrew Filardo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 691, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Jakub Janus, 2016. "The Transmission Mechanism Of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 7-21, March.
    7. Singh, Vikkram & Roca, Eduardo & Li, Bin, 2021. "Effectiveness of policy interventions during financial crises in China and Russia: Lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-277.
    8. OLTEANU, Dan, 2015. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness In Stimulating The Cees Credit Recovery," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(3), pages 8-24.
    9. Llanto, Gilberto M., 2016. "Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines," Research Paper Series DP 2016-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España.
    11. Llanto, Gilberto M., 2016. "Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2016-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    12. Chen, Pu & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Financial stress, regime switching and spillover effects: Evidence from a multi-regime global VAR model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 318-348.
    13. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2017. "State-dependent monetary policy transmission and financial market tensions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 56-61.
    14. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; Financial markets; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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