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Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Bejarano
  • Franz Hamann
  • Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria
  • Diego Rodríguez

Abstract

The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation-targeting central banks in oil-exporting economies. In this article, the authors illustrate this challenge and conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of changes in oil prices in a small open economy in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. They build a monetary, three-sector, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and estimate it for the Colombian economy. They model the oil sector as an optimal resource extracting problem and show that in oil-exporting economies the macroeconomic effects vary according to the degree of persistence of oil price shocks. The main channels through which these shocks pass to the economy come from the real exchange rate, the country risk premium, and sluggish price adjustments. Inflation-targeting central banks in such economies face a policy dilemma: raise the policy rate to fight increased inflation coming from the exchange rate passthrough or lower it to stimulate a slowing economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Bejarano & Franz Hamann & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Diego Rodríguez, 2016. "Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(3), pages 239-261.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00063
    DOI: 10.20955/r.2016.239-261
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    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.239-261
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Auray, Stéphane & de Blas, Beatriz & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2011. "Ramsey policies in a small open economy with sticky prices and capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1531-1546, September.
    2. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Bianca De Paoli, 2010. "On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1523-1542, December.
    4. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: Patacon Model Description," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 222-245, December.
    5. Franz Hamann & Jesús Bejarano & Diego Rodríguez, 2015. "Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices," Borradores de Economia 871, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Auray, Stéphane & de Blas, Beatriz & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2011. "Ramsey policies in a small open economy with sticky prices and capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1531-1546, September.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    8. Andrés González & Franz Hamann & Diego Rodríguez, 2016. "Macroprudential policies in a commodity exporting economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 69-73, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Robin Sickles & Peter Hartley, 2001. "A Model of Optimal Dynamic Oil Extraction: Evidence From a Large Middle Eastern Field," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 59-71, January.
    10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1981. " The Optimal Production of an Exhaustible Resource When Price is Exogenous and Stochastic," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(2), pages 277-288.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    12. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of Exploration and Extraction of Oil in the U.K. Continental Shelf," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(401), pages 367-390, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Irina Kozlovtceva & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Stas Tatarintsev, 2019. "Financial Stability Implications of Policy Mix in a Small Open Commodity-Exporting Economy," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps42, Bank of Russia.
    3. Joab Dan VALDIVIA CORIA & Daney David VALDIVIA CORIA, 2017. "Impulse on the Aggregate Demand in Bolivia through the Coordination of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Crisis Time," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 156-173, June.
    4. Tibor Hledik & Karel Musil & Jakub Rysanek & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for the Oil-Rich Kazakh Economy," Working Papers 2018/11, Czech National Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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