Evaluating random walk forecasts of exchange rates
Purpose - The random walk forecast of exchange rate serves as a standard benchmark for forecast comparison. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether this benchmark is unbiased and directionally accurate under symmetric loss. The focus is on the random walk forecasts of the dollar/euro for 1999-2007 and the dollar/pound for 1971-2007. Design/methodology/approach - A forecasting framework to generate the one- to four-quarter-ahead random walk forecasts at varying lead times is designed. This allows to compare forecast accuracy at different lead times and forecast horizons. Using standard evaluation methods, this paper further evaluates these forecasts in terms of unbiasedness and directional accuracy. Findings - The paper shows that forecast accuracy improves with a reduction in the lead time but deteriorates with an increase in the forecast horizon. More importantly, the random walk forecasts are unbiased and accurately predict directional change under symmetric loss and thus are of value to a user who assigns similar cost to incorrect upward and downward move predictions in the exchange rates. Research limitations/implications - The one- to four-quarter-ahead random walk forecasts evaluated here are for averages of daily figures and not for the (end-of-quarter) rates in 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-months. Thus, the framework is of value to a market participant who is interested in forecasting quarterly average rates rather than the end-of-quarter rates. Originality/value - The exchange rate forecasting framework presented in this paper allows the evaluation of the random walk forecasts in terms of directional accuracy which (to the best of knowledge) has not been done before.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=sef Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
- Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Engel, Charles, 1994.
"Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
- Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Engel, 1991. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Research Working Paper 91-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001.
"Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 81-91, February.
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
- Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.P., 1998.
"Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
516, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Michael P. Clements & David F.Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S1-S19.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2000. "Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models," Economics Series Working Papers 5, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Ito, Takatoshi, 1990.
"Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
- Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991.
"An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
- Richard Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1989. "An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 367, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
- Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:171-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.