IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bsl/wpaper/2005-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Asset Returns and Components of Inflation: A Structural VAR Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hagmann, Matthias
  • Lenz, Carlos

    () (University of Basel)

Abstract

We shed new light on the negative relationship between real stock returns or real interest rates and (i) ex post inflation, (ii) expected inflation, (iii) unexpected inflation and (iv) changes in expected inflation. Using the structural vector autoregression methodology, we propose a decomposition of those series into economically interpretable components driven by aggregate supply, real demand and money market shocks. Our empirical results support Fama’s ’proxy hypothesis’ and the predictions of several general equilibrium models. Concerning the negative relation between the real rate of interest and inflation, we find that the Mundell-Tobin model and the explanation of Fama and Gibbons (1982) are not competitors: both add insight in their own way about the reasons for the negative correlation between those variables. However, the importance of the latter explanation has decreased since the 1980’s.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagmann, Matthias & Lenz, Carlos, 2005. "Real Asset Returns and Components of Inflation: A Structural VAR Analysis," Working papers 2005/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2005/11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/61257/1/20180305122740_5a9d29ac34969.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    2. Balduzzi, Pierluigi, 1995. "Stock returns, inflation, and the 'proxy hypothesis': A new look at the data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 47-53, April.
    3. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. " The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 35-48, March.
    4. Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The stock return-inflation puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 147-156, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ciner, Cetin, 2015. "Are equities good inflation hedges? A frequency domain perspective," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 12-17.
    2. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    3. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real stock returns; real rate of interest; expected and unexpected inflation; ’Fisher hypothesis’; structural VAR.;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2005/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WWZ). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wwzbsch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.