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Noisy Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Tatjana Dahlhaus
  • Luca Gambetti

Abstract

We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise. We employ a non-standard vector autoregression procedure to disentangle the economic and financial effects of news and noise in US monetary policy since the mid-1990s. Using survey- and market-based data on federal funds rate expectations, we find that the noisy signal plays a relatively important role for macroeconomic dynamics. A signal reporting news about a future policy tightening shifts policy rate expectations upwards and decreases output and prices. A sizable part of the signal is noise surrounding future monetary policy actions. The noise decreases output and prices and can explain up to 16% and 13% of their variations, respectively. Furthermore, it significantly increases the excess bond premium, the corporate spread and financial market volatility, and decreases stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatjana Dahlhaus & Luca Gambetti, 2018. "Noisy Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 18-23, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial markets; Monetary policy implementation; Transmission of monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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