IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v88y2023ics1042443123000963.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency substitution in a world of looming retail CBDCs: Suggestive currency substitution-based evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Hongyi
  • Siklos, Pierre L.

Abstract

Digitalization, spurred by the pandemic, has accelerated plans by many central banks to introduce retail digital currencies (rCBDCs). If international coordination eventually allows individuals to hold digital multiple currencies this potentially implies greater scope for currency substitution. The potential to ease constraints on currency substitution dovetails nicely with the G20′s continuing aspiration to enhance digitalization as a “tool” to improve economic performance and reduce inequality. Nevertheless, as discussed in our study, opportunities for individuals and small businesses to exploit the promise of lower transactions costs thanks to digitalization will be difficult to realize in the current regulatory and geopolitical environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hongyi & Siklos, Pierre L., 2023. "Currency substitution in a world of looming retail CBDCs: Suggestive currency substitution-based evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s1042443123000963
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443123000963
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101828?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo Levi Yeyati, 2021. "Financial dollarization and de-dollarization in the new milennium," Working Papers 38, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Thorsten Beck & Mathilde Janfils & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar, 2022. "What Explains Remittance Fees? Panel Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2022/063, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tanaka, Migiwa, 2014. "Currency demand, new technology, and the adoption of electronic money: Micro evidence from Japan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 5-8.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    8. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    9. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    10. Martin Chorzempa, 2021. "China, the United States, and central bank digital currencies: how important is it to be first?," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 102-115, January.
    11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    12. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    14. Lawrence Christiano & Husnu Dalgic & Armen Nurbekyan, 2021. "Financial Dollarization in Emerging Markets: Efficient Risk Sharing or Prescription for Disaster?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_306, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    15. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    16. Brandon Tan, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency Adoption: A Two-Sided Model," IMF Working Papers 2023/127, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Assandé Désiré Adom & Subhash C. Sharma & A.K.M. Mahbub Morshed, 2009. "Currency substitution in selected African countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(6), pages 616-640, October.
    18. Adrian Armas & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2022. "Digital Money and Central Banks Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 2022/206, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin, 2017. "Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 23711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Akcay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Karasulu, Meral, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate instability: The Turkish case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 827-835, April.
    21. Raphael A. Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost, 2020. "Rise of the Central Bank Digital Currencies: Drivers, Approaches and Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8655, CESifo.
    22. Thomas Scheiber & Caroline Stern, 2016. "Currency substitution in CESEE: why do households prefer euro payments?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 73-98.
    23. Mr. Charles M. Kahn & Mr. Manmohan Singh & Jihad Alwazir, 2022. "Digital Money and Central Bank Operations," IMF Working Papers 2022/085, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell, 2022. "The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies," IMF Working Papers 2022/058, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Brandon Tan, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial Inclusion," IMF Working Papers 2023/069, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Ying & Gong, Bing & Zhou, Peng, 2024. "Centralized Use of Decentralized Technology: Tokenization of Currencies and Assets," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quynh Chau Pham Holland & Benjamin Liu & Eduardo Roca, 2019. "International funding cost and heterogeneous mortgage interest-rate pass-through: a bank-level analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1255-1289, October.
    2. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    3. Fateh Belaïd, Sabri Boubaker, Rajwane Kafrouni, 2020. "Carbon emissions, income inequality and environmental degradation: the case of Mediterranean countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 17(1), pages 73-102, June.
    4. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho & Park, Donghyun, 2016. "Trade openness and environmental quality: International evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-55.
    5. Samia Nasreen, 2021. "Association between health expenditures, economic growth and environmental pollution: Long‐run and causality analysis from Asian economies," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 925-944, May.
    6. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Kasman, Adnan & Duman, Yavuz Selman, 2015. "CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-103.
    8. Im, K S. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 2023. "Reflections on "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels"," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2310, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "Effect of internal migration on the environment in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 31-44.
    10. Bakry, Walid & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Farouk, Sherine & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does it hurt or help? Revisiting the effects of ICT on economic growth and energy consumption: A nonlinear panel ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 597-617.
    11. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    12. DO ANGO, Simplicio & AMBA OYON, Claude Marius, 2016. "Health expenditure and Real disposable Income in the ECCAS: A Causal Study using spatial panel approach," MPRA Paper 79684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    14. Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2018. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve in the OECD: 1870–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 389-399.
    15. Guerello, Chiara & Tronzano, Marco, 2020. "“Global factors, international spillovers, and the term structure of interest rates: New evidence for Asian Countries”," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Meher Manzur, 2018. "Exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 216-232, January.
    17. Fang, Zheng & Chen, Yang, 2017. "Human capital and energy in economic growth – Evidence from Chinese provincial data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 340-358.
    18. Abdul Haseeb & Enjun Xia & Shah Saud & Muhammad Usman & Muhammad Umer Quddoos, 2023. "Unveiling the liaison between human capital, trade openness, and environmental sustainability for BRICS economies: Robust panel‐data estimation," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2), pages 229-256, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s1042443123000963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.