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Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

  • Luís Francisco Aguiar

    ()

    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

  • Teresa Maria Rodrigues

    ()

    (University of Minho)

  • Maria Joana Soares

    ()

    (Universidade do Minho)

Registered author(s):

    SWe use wavelet analysis to study the impact of the Euro adoption on the oil price macroeconomy relation in the Euroland. We uncover evidence that the oil-macroeconomy relation changed in the past decades. We show that after the Euro adoption some countries became more similar with respect to how their macroeconomies react to oil shocks. However, we also conclude that the adoption of the common currency did not contribute to a higher degree of synchronization between Portugal, Ireland and Belgium and the rest of the countries in the Euroland. On the contrary, in these countries the macroeconomic reaction to an oil shock became more asymmetric after adopting the Euro.

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    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2012/NIPE_WP_07_2012.pdf
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    Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 07/2012.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:07/2012
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    Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal

    Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
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    Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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    1. Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1546, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Patrick M. Crowley & David G. Mayes, 2008. "How fused is the euro area core?: An evaluation of growth cycle co-movement and synchronization using wavelet analysis," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(1), pages 63-95.
    3. Gert Peersman, 2007. "The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: the Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area," Working Papers 136, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Lukas Vacha & Jozef Barunik, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Papers 1201.4776, arXiv.org.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 16, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0518, Banco de Espa�a.
    10. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
    11. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    13. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    14. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    15. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    16. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
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