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Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

  • Luís Francisco Aguiar

    ()

    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

  • Teresa Maria Rodrigues

    ()

    (University of Minho)

  • Maria Joana Soares

    ()

    (Universidade do Minho)

Registered author(s):

    SWe use wavelet analysis to study the impact of the Euro adoption on the oil price macroeconomy relation in the Euroland. We uncover evidence that the oil-macroeconomy relation changed in the past decades. We show that after the Euro adoption some countries became more similar with respect to how their macroeconomies react to oil shocks. However, we also conclude that the adoption of the common currency did not contribute to a higher degree of synchronization between Portugal, Ireland and Belgium and the rest of the countries in the Euroland. On the contrary, in these countries the macroeconomic reaction to an oil shock became more asymmetric after adopting the Euro.

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    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2012/NIPE_WP_07_2012.pdf
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    Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 07/2012.

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    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:07/2012
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
    Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
    Fax: +351-253601380
    Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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    1. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Engel, Charles M & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Currency Unions and International Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gert Peersman, 2007. "The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: the Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area," Working Papers 136, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0518, Banco de Espa�a.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    9. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    10. Lukas Vacha & Jozef Barunik, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Papers 1201.4776, arXiv.org.
    11. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    12. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    14. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    15. Patrick M. Crowley & David G. Mayes, 2008. "How fused is the euro area core?: An evaluation of growth cycle co-movement and synchronization using wavelet analysis," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(1), pages 63-95.
    16. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    17. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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