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Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomy: The Role for Precautionary Demand and Storage

  • Rizvanoghlu, Islam

Traditional literature on energy economics gives a central role to exogenous political events (supply shocks) or to global economic growth (aggregate demand shock) in modeling the oil market. However, more recent literature claims that the increased precautionary demand for oil triggered by increased uncertainty about a future oil supply shortfall is also driving the price of oil. The intuition behind the precautionary demand is that since firms, using oil as an input in their production process, are concerned about the future oil prices, it is reasonable to think that in the case of uncertainty about future oil supply (such as a highly expected war in the Middle East), they will buy futures and/or forward contracts to guarantee a future price and quantity. We find that under baseline Taylor-type interest rate rule, real oil price, inflation and output loss overshoot and go down below steady state at the next period if uncertainties are not realized. However, if the shock is realized, i.e. followed by an actual supply shock, the effect on inflation and output loss is high and persistent.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42351.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
Date of revision: 01 Jun 2012
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42351
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  1. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
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  4. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2011. "Second Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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  8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments," Working Paper 0510, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  10. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  11. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
  13. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & D. Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks; The Role of Storage," IMF Working Papers 12/270, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  15. Alessia Campolmi, 2009. "Oil price shocks: Demand vs Supply in a two-country," 2009 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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