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The three co’s to jointly model commodity markets: co-production, co-consumption and co-trading

Author

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  • Amelie Schischke

    (University of Augsburg)

  • Patric Papenfuß

    (University of Augsburg)

  • Andreas Rathgeber

    (University of Augsburg)

Abstract

In this study, we develop a framework, based on a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model, to unite two perspectives on commodity markets, the commodity-specific, single-market-centered approach, investigating the micro- and macroeconomic drivers of commodity prices, and the market perspective, which observes joint movements of commodity prices on exchanges. Thereby, the GVAR model disentangles single market from inter-market effects, while simultaneously accounting for the impact of macroeconomic factors. We apply the framework to the six industrial metals markets, reflecting their interdependencies via their co-production, co-consumption, or co-trading relation. In particular, the numerous significant spillover effects in the cross-commodity dimension underline the importance of jointly modeling commodity markets. While the strong co-movement between industrial metal prices is represented exceptionally well by our framework, the microeconomic supply and demand attributes of the commodities have significant impact, within and across markets, even on price variables, highlighting their relevance in modern commodity market models. Moreover, we detect global shocks, e.g., an increase in global demand, affect each commodity market to a similar extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Amelie Schischke & Patric Papenfuß & Andreas Rathgeber, 2024. "The three co’s to jointly model commodity markets: co-production, co-consumption and co-trading," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 883-925, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:66:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02471-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02471-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities; Metal markets; Co-movement; Microeconomic factors; Global vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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