IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v119y2023ics014098832300035x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil price and the automobile industry: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio implications with downside risk

Author

Listed:
  • Jain, Prachi
  • Maitra, Debasish
  • Kang, Sang Hoon

Abstract

The paper examines the interactions of downside risks between crude oil and the automobile sector through the employment of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Diebold and Yılmaz (2014) framework in a static and time-varying perspective. The network connectedness is found to intensify during the periods of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). Crude oil remains a net receiver of downside risks along with the automobile firms such as FAW and SAIC while Daimler, BMW, and Renault are the prominent transmitters of downside risk in the network. Further, we find that the net pairwise spillover of downside risk of oil on automobile stocks is time-variant. The risk diversification strategies using optimal portfolios that minimise VaR95, CVaR95, and maximise quadratic utility gains are constructed with oil futures contracts and evaluated for their hedging efficiency and net utility gains. The overall hedging efficiency and net utility gains are highest during the Global Financial crisis period, followed by COVID-19, the post-crisis, and the pre-crisis periods. The findings hold significance for investors, fund managers, and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Oil price and the automobile industry: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio implications with downside risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:119:y:2023:i:c:s014098832300035x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098832300035X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106537?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Kerry Liu, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Chinese economy: impacts, policy responses and implications," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 308-330, March.
    5. Benjamin Leard & Joshua Linn & Virginia McConnell, 2017. "Fuel Prices, New Vehicle Fuel Economy, and Implications for Attribute-Based Standards," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 659-700.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    7. Lu, ZhiYi & Meng, LiLi & Wang, Yujin & Shen, Qingjie, 2016. "Optimal reinsurance under VaR and TVaR risk measures in the presence of reinsurer’s risk limit," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 92-100.
    8. Celikyurt, U. & Ozekici, S., 2007. "Multiperiod portfolio optimization models in stochastic markets using the mean-variance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 186-202, May.
    9. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    10. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    11. Yu, Wenhua & Yang, Kun & Wei, Yu & Lei, Likun, 2018. "Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1423-1433.
    12. Zhifang He & Fangzhao Zhou & Xiaohua Xia & Fenghua Wen & Yiyuan Huang, 2019. "Interaction between Oil Price and Investor Sentiment: Nonlinear Causality, Time- Varying Influence, and Asymmetric Effect," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2756-2773, September.
    13. Liu, Bing-Yue & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2017. "Dynamic return-volatility dependence and risk measure of CoVaR in the oil market: A time-varying mixed copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 53-65.
    14. Cameron, Ken & Schnusenberg, Oliver, 2009. "Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq: An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 375-381, May.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    16. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    17. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    18. Zhengke Ye, Chunyan Hu, Linjie He, Guangda Ouyang, and Fenghua Wen, 2020. "The Dynamic Time-frequency Relationship between International Oil Prices and Investor Sentiment in China: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5), pages 251-270.
    19. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    20. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    21. Chiang, I-Hsuan Ethan & Hughen, W. Keener, 2017. "Do oil futures prices predict stock returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-141.
    22. Maitra, Debasish & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil price volatility and the logistics industry: Dynamic connectedness with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    23. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    24. Thomas Klier & Joshua Linn, 2010. "The Price of Gasoline and New Vehicle Fuel Economy: Evidence from Monthly Sales Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 134-153, August.
    25. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    26. Aloui, Chaker & Mabrouk, Samir, 2010. "Value-at-risk estimations of energy commodities via long-memory, asymmetry and fat-tailed GARCH models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2326-2339, May.
    27. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xia, 2013. "Reform of refined oil product pricing mechanism and energy rebound effect for passenger transportation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 329-337.
    28. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Ramey, Valerie A, 1993. "Segment Shifts and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Automobile Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 213-218, May.
    29. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2011. "Oil, Automobiles, and the US Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 333-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    31. Baur, Dirk G. & Todorova, Neda, 2018. "Automobile manufacturers, electric vehicles and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 252-262.
    32. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    33. Fang, Libing & Chen, Baizhu & Yu, Honghai & Qian, Yichuo, 2018. "Identifying systemic important markets from a global perspective: Using the ADCC ΔCoVaR approach with skewed-t distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 137-144.
    34. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    35. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David, 2017. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on TVP-VAR," MPRA Paper 78282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Sun, X.T. & Chung, S.H. & Chan, Felix T.S. & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "The impact of liner shipping unreliability on the production–distribution scheduling of a decentralized manufacturing system," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 242-269.
    37. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    38. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard, 2020. "Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    39. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    40. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Time-varying effects of oil supply and demand shocks on China's macro-economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 424-437.
    41. Sun, Qi & Xu, Lin & Yin, Hua, 2016. "Energy pricing reform and energy efficiency in China: Evidence from the automobile market," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 39-51.
    42. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    43. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Grüninger, Matthias C. & Hirschvogl, Simone, 2010. "Information asymmetry and the value of cash," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2168-2184, September.
    44. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    45. Lea Petrella & Alessandro G. Laporta & Luca Merlo, 2019. "Cross-Country Assessment of Systemic Risk in the European Stock Market: Evidence from a CoVaR Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 169-186, November.
    46. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    47. Aggarwal, Raj & Akhigbe, Aigbe & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2012. "Oil price shocks and transportation firm asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1370-1379.
    48. Kang, Sang Hoon & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Troster, Victor & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Directional spillover effects between ASEAN and world stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    49. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    50. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Oil price and automobile stock return co-movement: A wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 172-181.
    51. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    52. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    53. Elder, John & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2014. "Price discovery in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 18-27.
    54. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    55. David Haugh & Annabelle Mourougane & Olivier Chatal, 2010. "The Automobile Industry in and Beyond the Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 745, OECD Publishing.
    56. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    57. Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.
    58. Carlo Acerbi & Claudio Nordio & Carlo Sirtori, 2001. "Expected Shortfall as a Tool for Financial Risk Management," Papers cond-mat/0102304, arXiv.org.
    59. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "The impact of downward/upward oil price movements on metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-141.
    60. Dzielinski, Michal, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty and its impact on the stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 167-175.
    61. Du, Zhili & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "How oil price changes affect car use and purchase decisions? Survey evidence from Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 68-74.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maitra, Debasish & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil price volatility and the logistics industry: Dynamic connectedness with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Maitra, Debasish & Guhathakurta, Kousik & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly relation between oil and commodities: An analysis of asymmetric volatility connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    5. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    6. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Martin Enilov & Giorgio Fazio & Atanu Ghoshray, 2023. "Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time‐varying MIDAS analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2607-2619, July.
    9. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    10. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Haykir, Ozkan & Yagli, Ibrahim & Aktekin Gok, Emine Dilara & Budak, Hilal, 2022. "Oil price explosivity and stock return: Do sector and firm size matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    14. Zhang, Hua & Chen, Jinyu & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Kang, Sanghoon & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Sadorsky, Perry & McIver, Ronald, 2021. "Frequency spillovers, connectedness, and the hedging effectiveness of oil and gold for US sector ETFs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    16. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh & McIver, Ron & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Sensitivity of US sectoral returns to energy commodities under different investment horizons and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Ahmed, Ali, 2019. "Cross-quantilogram-based correlation and dependence between renewable energy stock and other asset classes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 743-759.
    18. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    19. Zhang, Dayong, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets revisited: Measuring connectedness from a global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 323-333.
    20. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2015. "US stock market regimes and oil price shocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 132-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Automobiles; Downside risk spillover; Portfolio diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:119:y:2023:i:c:s014098832300035x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.