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Inflation Expectations and How it Explains the Inflationary Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Michigan Survey

  • Benjamin Wong

Analysis of the Michigan Survey data confirms U.S. inflation expectations are not perfectly anchored in the event of an oil price shock. Two key results emerge through counterfactual analysis. First, better anchoring of inflation expectations can ameliorate the mild inflation impact which occurs 10 to 12 months after an oil price shock. Second, an initial large burst of inflation from an oil price shock always occurs regardless whether inflation expectations are anchored or not. Therefore, while better anchoring of inflation expectations can lead to better inflation outcomes, these gains can be limited.

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2014-06/45_2014_wong.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2014-45.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-45
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  1. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, 09.
  2. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
  3. Yash P. Mehra & Christopher Herrington, 2008. "On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 121-146.
  4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO.
  6. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
  8. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  9. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
  10. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and The Role of Oil Shocks: How Different Were the 1970s?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
  13. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
  14. Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
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