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Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Davis, J. Scott

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Presno, Ignacio

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

Abstract

Using survey data of inflation expectations across a 36 developed and developing countries, this paper examines whether the adoption of inflation targeting has helped to anchor inflation expectations. We examine the response of inflation expectations following a shock to inflation, inflation expectations, and oil prices. For the 13 countries that adopted inflation targeting midway through the time period used in this study, there is a significant difference in the responses between the earlier and the later subperiods. A shock leads to a positive, significant, and persistent increase inflation expectations in the earlier, pre-targeting subperiod, but the same response is much less significant and persistent in the later, posttargeting subperiod. For the control group of 23 countries that did not adopt inflation targeting during this time period, there is no difference between responses in the earlier and the later sub-periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts," Globalization Institute Working Papers 174, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:174
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp174
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2014/0174.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
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    5. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," NBER Working Papers 14791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
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    13. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kohei Hasui & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Yuki Teranishi, 2018. "Role of Expectation in a Liquidity Trap," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 081, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Carlos Medel, 2018. "Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 825, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. repec:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:20:p:1481-1485 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Strasser, Georg, 2019. "Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance," Working Paper Series 2263, European Central Bank.
    6. Luca A Ricci & Wei Shi, 2016. "Trilemma or Dilemma; Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/75, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    8. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:50:y:2018:i:7:p:1369-1399 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hans-Ueli Hunziker & Christian Raggi & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch & Attilio Zanetti, 2018. "The impact of guidance, short-term dynamics and individual characteristics on firms' long-term inflation expectations," Working Papers 2018-18, Swiss National Bank.
    10. repec:chb:bcchni:v:21:y:2018:i:2:p:128-152 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andrea Fracasso & Rocco Probo, 2017. "When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1481-1485, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price levels; inflation; deflation; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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