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Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model

Listed author(s):
  • Søren Johansen

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)

  • Bent Nielsen

    (University of Oxford - Department of Economics)

We review recent asymptotic results on some robust methods for multiple regression. The regressors include stationary and non-stationary time series as well as polynomial terms. The methods include the Huber-skip M-estimator, 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators, in particular the Impulse Indicator Saturation, iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators and the Forward Search. These methods classify observations as outliers or not. From the asymptotic results we establish a new asymptotic theory for the gauge of these methods, which is the expected frequency of falsely detected outliers. The asymptotic theory involves normal distribution results and Poisson distribution results. The theory is applied to a time series data set.

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File URL: http://www.econ.ku.dk/english/research/publications/wp/dp_2014/1423.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 14-23.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 08 Sep 2014
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1423
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  1. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
  2. Kathryn Graddy, 2006. "Markets: The Fulton Fish Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 207-220, Spring.
  3. Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.
  4. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Georgiev, Iliyan, 2013. "Exploiting Infinite Variance Through Dummy Variables In Nonstationary Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(06), pages 1162-1195, December.
  5. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  6. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
  7. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
  8. Liese, F. & Vajda, I., 1994. "Consistency of M-Estimates in General Regression Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 93-114, July.
  9. Marco Riani & Anthony C. Atkinson & Andrea Cerioli, 2009. "Finding an unknown number of multivariate outliers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 447-466.
  10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
  11. Kathryn Graddy, 1995. "Testing for Imperfect Competition at the Fulton Fish Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(1), pages 75-92, Spring.
  12. Chen, X. R. & Wu, Y. H., 1988. "Strong consistency of M-estimates in linear models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 116-130, October.
  13. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
  15. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  16. repec:bot:quadip:118 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  18. Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen, 2010. "Discussion of The Forward Search: Theory and Data Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 2010-W02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  19. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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