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Oil, Uncertainty, And Gasoline Prices

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  • Chang, Dongfeng
  • Serletis, Apostolos

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices and also examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on gasoline prices. The empirical model is based on a structural vector autoregression that is modified to accommodate multivariate GARCH-in-Mean errors. We use monthly data for the United States over the period from January 1976 to September 2014. We find that there is an asymmetric relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices, and that oil price uncertainty has a positive effect on gasoline price changes. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and alternative measures of the price of oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Dongfeng & Serletis, Apostolos, 2018. "Oil, Uncertainty, And Gasoline Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 546-561, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:03:p:546-561_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas, 2019. "Causality in Quantiles and Dynamic Relations in Energy Markets," Working Papers 116, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Osama D. Sweidan, 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 164, pages 183-193.
    4. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," Working Papers 268, Bank of Greece.
    5. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas, 2019. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic relations in energy markets: (De)tails matter," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Audi, Marc & Poulin, Marc & Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Amjad, 2025. "Quantile Analysis of Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance: A European Perspective," MPRA Paper 124295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    8. Hamid Baghestani & Jorg Bley, 2020. "Do directional predictions of US gasoline prices reveal asymmetries?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 348-360, April.

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