Quasi-Bayesian Local Projections: Simultaneous Inference and Extension to the Instrumental Variable Method
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015.
"Betting the house,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
- Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, pages 2-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2014. "Betting the House," CEPR Discussion Papers 10305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," NBER Working Papers 20771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," Working Paper Series 2014-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Oscar Jorda & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," Working Papers 312014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," CESifo Working Paper Series 5147, CESifo.
- Taylor, Alan M. & Dube, Arindrajit & Girardi, Daniele & Jordà , Òscar, 2023.
"A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
18141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies," Working Paper Series 2023-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
- Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
- Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016.
"The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
- Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Working Paper Series 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2014. "The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy," SAFE Working Paper Series 79, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Brignone, Riccardo & Gonzato, Luca & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Efficient Quasi-Bayesian Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models Using Risk-Neutral Cumulants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
- Kim, Jae-Young, 2002. "Limited information likelihood and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 175-193, March.
- Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018.
"Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
- Karel Mertens & José L. Montiel Olea, 2013. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mertens, Karel, 2015. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018.
"Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," NBER Working Papers 19355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021.
"Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs,"
Working Papers
2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
- Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Papers 2104.00655, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
- Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2022. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," NBER Working Papers 30207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hong, Han & Li, Huiyu & Li, Jessie, 2021.
"BLP estimation using Laplace transformation and overlapping simulation draws,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 56-72.
- Han Hong & Huiyu Li & Jessie Li, 2019. "BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws," Working Paper Series 2019-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024.
"The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices,"
NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aruoba, S. Borağan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2024. "The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Working Papers 32623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aruoba, Boragan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2024. "The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices," CEPR Discussion Papers 19175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "When do common time series estimands have nonparametric causal meaning?," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences," NBER Working Papers 31184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003.
"An MCMC approach to classical estimation,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong, 2023. "An MCMC Approach to Classical Estimation," Papers 2301.07782, arXiv.org.
- Eben Lazarus & Daniel J. Lewis & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice Rejoinder," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 574-575, October.
- Makram El-Shagi, 2019. "A simple estimator for smooth local projections," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(10), pages 830-834, June.
- Anna Kormilitsina & Denis Nekipelov, 2016. "Consistent Variance Of The Laplace‐Type Estimators: Application To Dsge Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 603-622, May.
- P. Richard Hahn & Jingyu He & Hedibert Lopes, 2018. "Bayesian Factor Model Shrinkage for Linear IV Regression With Many Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 278-287, April.
- Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024.
"Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
- Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
- Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2022. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," NBER Working Papers 30207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018.
"Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
- Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data," NBER Working Papers 20719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hedibert F. Lopes & Nicholas G. Polson, 2014. "Bayesian Instrumental Variables: Priors and Likelihoods," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 100-121, June.
- Conley, Timothy G. & Hansen, Christian B. & McCulloch, Robert E. & Rossi, Peter E., 2008. "A semi-parametric Bayesian approach to the instrumental variable problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 276-305, May.
- Florian Huber & Christian Matthes & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "General Seemingly Unrelated Local Projections," Papers 2410.17105, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
- Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021.
"Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
- Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Working Papers 2020-16, Princeton University. Economics Department..
- José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2019. "Simultaneous confidence bands: Theory, implementation, and an application to SVARs," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, January.
- Herbst, Edward P. & Johannsen, Benjamin K., 2024. "Bias in local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
- Anna Kormilitsina & Denis Nekipelov, 2016.
"Consistent Variance Of The Laplace‐Type Estimators: Application To Dsge Models,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 603-622, May.
- Anna Kormilitsina & Denis Nekipelov, 2015. "Consistent Variance of the Laplace Type Estimators: Application to DSGE Models," Departmental Working Papers 1510, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
- Eben Lazarus & Daniel J. Lewis & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 541-559, October.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024.
"Local Projections,"
NBER Working Papers
32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Łyziak & Anna Sznajderska, 2022. "The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance for the Goverment Spending Multiplier in Poland ," KAE Working Papers 2022-080, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
- NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2025. "Time-varying Local Projections with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 761, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Herbst, Edward P. & Johannsen, Benjamin K., 2024. "Bias in local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
- Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024.
"Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
- Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2023. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: testing the Porter hypothesis," Working Paper Series 2820, European Central Bank.
- Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023.
"Identification of systematic monetary policy,"
Working Paper Series
2851, European Central Bank.
- Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lukas Hack & Klodiana Istrefi & Matthias Meier, 2024. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," Working papers 973, Banque de France.
- Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "Stock returns and tax progressivity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "When do common time series estimands have nonparametric causal meaning?," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
- Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-RamÃrez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016.
"Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724,
Elsevier.
- Rubio-RamÃrez, Juan Francisco & Schorfheide, Frank & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio Ramírez & Frank Schorfheide, 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 21862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-RamÃrez & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Dec 2015.
- Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
- Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022.
"Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2021. "Comparison of Local Projection Estimators for Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1949, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Martin Bruns & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2021. "Comparison of Local Projection Estimators for Proxy Vector Autoregressions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-04, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
- Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
- Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023.
"Inference for Local Projections,"
Papers
2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Jordà , Òscar & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2024. "Inference for Local Projections," CEPR Discussion Papers 19379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Atsushi Inoue & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2024. "Inference for Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024.
"The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
- Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9678, CESifo.
- Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Gasteiger, Emanuel & Melina, Giovanni, 2023. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions?," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2023, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
- Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021.
"Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2021-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Boto-García, David & Albert, Juan Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "Carbon price shocks and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
- Ho, Paul & Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2024.
"Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2023. "Averaging Impulse Responses Using Prediction Pools," Working Paper 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Rasmus Wiese & Joåo Tovar Jalles & Jakob de Haan & João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Labour Market Counter-Reforms in OECD Countries: Conditional Impact on Output and Employment Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 11199, CESifo.
- Lenard Lieb & Adam Jassem & Rui Jorge Almeida & Nalan Baştürk & Stephan Smeekes, 2025.
"Min(d)ing the President: A Text Analytic Approach to Measuring Tax News,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 285-314, April.
- Lenard Lieb & Adam Jassem & Rui Jorge Almeida & Nalan Bac{s}turk & Stephan Smeekes, 2021. "Min(d)ing the President: A text analytic approach to measuring tax news," Papers 2104.03261, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.20249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.