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Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Porqueddu

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Fabrizio Venditti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between commodity prices and consumer food prices in the euro area and in its largest economies (Germany, France and Italy) and tests whether the latter respond asymmetrically to shocks to the former. The issue is of particular interest for those monetary authorities that target headline consumer price inflation, which has been heavily influenced by pronounced swings in international commodity prices in the past decade. The empirical analysis is based on two distinct but complementary approaches. First, we employ a structural model to identify a shock to commodity prices and verify using formal econometric tests whether the Impulse Response Functions of food consumer prices is invariant to the sign of the commodity price shock. Next, we employ predictive regressions and examine the relative forecasting ability of linear models compared with that of models that allow for sign-dependent nonlinearities. Overall, the empirical analysis uncovers very little evidence of asymmetries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_878_12
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    Cited by:

    1. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    2. James Davidson & Andreea Halunga & Tim Lloyd & Steve McCorriston & Wyn Morgan, 2016. "World Commodity Prices and Domestic Retail Food Price Inflation: Some Insights from the UK," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 566-583, September.
    3. Lloyd, Tim & McCorriston, Steve & Morgan, Wyn & Zvogu, Evious, 2015. "Common Shocks, Uncommon Effects: Food Price Inflation across the EU," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204301, Agricultural Economics Society.
    4. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2017. "Short-term inflation forecasting: The M.E.T.A. approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1065-1081.
    5. Davide Fantino & Giusy Cannone, 2013. "Evaluating the efficacy of European regional funds for R&D," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 902, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Margherita Bottero & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2013. "Limited credit records and market outcomes," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 903, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Lloyd, Tim & McCorriston, Steve & Zvogu, Evious, 2015. "Common Shocks, Uncommon Effects: Food Price Inflation across the EU," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212055, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    food prices; asymmetry; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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