IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2020-04-26.html

Oil Price Fluctuation and Health Outcomes in an Oil Exporting Country: Evidence from Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Oduyemi

    (Department of Economics, Tai Solarin University of Education, Ijagun, Nigeria,)

  • Taiwo Owoeye

    (Department of Economics, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria.)

Abstract

In oil exporting countries, government finance is heavily dependent on oil revenue and this tends to be highly volatile. This creates instability in output, terms of trade and fiscal balances, and lowers long-run growth rates and ultimately, social spending resulting into poor human development indicators. In Nigeria, indices of human capital development are among the worst globally despite its position as the largest oil producer in Africa. Using time series data from 1980 to 2017, and the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) estimates, this paper investigated how fluctuations in oil price affect health outcomes in Nigeria. The main results indicate that oil price shocks are not detrimental to health outcomes. This reinforces the fact that oil price shocks are neither necessary nor sufficient to explain changes that happen in health outcomes in this country. It is the way the government spends its resource windfalls, and the way it adjusts spending during a downturn that is accountable for the poor health outcomes in the Nigerian economy. The study therefore suggests strategic policies that supports ?scal prudence, minimizes macroeconomic distortions and improve health outcomes. This should be backed by adequate institutional capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Oduyemi & Taiwo Owoeye, 2020. "Oil Price Fluctuation and Health Outcomes in an Oil Exporting Country: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 212-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-04-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/9266/5123
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/9266/5123
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Anyanwu & Andrew E. O. Erhijakpor, 2009. "Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 400-433.
    2. Charles O. Manasseh & Felicia C. Abada & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Okoro E.U. Okoro & Aja Ebeke Egele & Kenneth C. Ozuzu, 2019. "Oil Price Fluctuation, Oil Revenue and Well-being in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 346-355.
    3. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    4. Grossman, Michael, 2000. "The human capital model," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 347-408, Elsevier.
    5. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    6. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    8. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    9. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    10. repec:aen:journl:1995v16-04-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chuku A. Chuku, 2012. "Linear and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks in an oil-importing and -exporting economy: the case of Nigeria," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(4), pages 413-443, December.
    12. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    13. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    14. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    15. Auty, R. & Warhurst, A., 1993. "Sustainable development in mineral exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 14-29, March.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    17. Papyrakis, Elissaios & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2006. "Resource windfalls, investment, and long-term income," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 117-128, June.
    18. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    19. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    20. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    21. Rafiq, Shuddhasawtta & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2009. "Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 121-132, September.
    22. Prachowny,Martin F. J., 1986. "Money in the Macroeconomy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521315944, Enero-Abr.
    23. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiev, 2024. "Analysis of the Main Social Macroeconomic Indicators of the Population During The oil Boom in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 135-149, March.
    2. Wang, Yue & Zhang, Zhenke & Xu, Minghui, 2023. "Evolution pattern of African countries' oil trade under the changing in the global oil market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    3. Rabiu Maijama’a & Kabiru Saidu Musa, 2021. "Crude Oil Price, Interest Rate and Unemployment Nexus in Nigeria: An Application of Toda and Yamamoto Long-Run Causality Procedure," Marketing and Branding Research, EUROKD, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Ohioze Wilson F. & Charles Ayobola O. & Ojo Tope J. & Osobase Anthony O. & Musa Samuel O., 2022. "Macroeconomic Variables Uncertainty and Health Outcomes in Nigeria," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 167-188.
    5. Valeriy Kozytskyy & Marianna Oliskevych & Galyna Beregova & Nelya Pabyrivska, 2023. "Output and Energy Prices Fluctuations in Response to Market Shocks: System Dynamic Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 462-466, March.
    6. Oduyemi, Gabriel Olusegun & Owoeye, Taiwo & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde, 2021. "Health outcomes and the resource curse paradox: The experience of African oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    3. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    4. Afia Malik, 2010. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 11(2), pages 223-244, September.
    5. Shahrestani, Parnia & Rafei, Meysam, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    7. Mignamissi, Dieudonné & Malah Kuete, Yselle Flora, 2021. "Resource rents and happiness on a global perspective: The resource curse revisited," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
    10. Motunrayo O AKINSOLA & NM ODHIAMBO, 2020. "Oil Price And Economic Growth Of Oil-Importing Countries: A Review Of International Literature," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 129-140.
    11. Afees A. Salisu & Umar B. Ndako & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Forecasting GDP of OPEC: The role of oil price," Working Papers 044, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    12. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    13. Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Letixerant, Philip, 2025. "Oil price expectations in explosive phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
    15. Lacheheb, Miloud & Sirag, Abdalla, 2019. "Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 217-222.
    16. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    17. B. Anand & Sunil Paul & M. Ramachandran, 2014. "Volatility Spillover between Oil and Stock Market Returns," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    18. Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Forecasting excess stock returns with crude oil market data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 316-324.
    19. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    20. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-04-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.