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Output and Energy Prices Fluctuations in Response to Market Shocks: System Dynamic Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Kozytskyy

    (Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine,)

  • Marianna Oliskevych

    (Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine,)

  • Galyna Beregova

    (Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine.)

  • Nelya Pabyrivska

    (Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine.)

Abstract

Regardless of the fact, whether governments of particular country implemented the strong lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 or not, the economies of each country all over the word have been suffered considerably due to the shocks caused by the pandemic. We observed slowdown of economic activity, macroeconomic instability and shifts in consumption preferences supplemented by rising unemployment as well as significant fluctuation of demand and production capability. The research problem addressed in this paper focuses on dynamic properties of output and inflation fluctuations that occur in response to economic shocks different magnitudes and types. We use a system dynamic approach and constructs two system dynamic models to examine the dynamics of output, prices, wage and inflation. The paper indicates ranges of relevant parameters values that correspond with sensitivity of output to demand and production capability changes related to possibility of reaching new equilibrium point. To explore the variety of prices and wage behavior in response to shocks we evaluate distinguish possible phase diagrams associated with stable node, stable focus, circle, unstable focus and unstable node. The results is a contribution to discussion of the policy issues related to mitigation of recession caused by unpredictable and strong shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Kozytskyy & Marianna Oliskevych & Galyna Beregova & Nelya Pabyrivska, 2023. "Output and Energy Prices Fluctuations in Response to Market Shocks: System Dynamic Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 462-466, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-02-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output fluctuation; system dynamic model; energy prices; shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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