IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v46y2022ipas1544612321003457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme risk spillover between crude oil price and financial factors

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Wan-Li
  • Fan, Ying
  • Ji, Qiang

Abstract

This paper uses the connectedness network model to analyze the risk spillover between WTI returns and 8 important financial factors in extreme risk scenarios. The findings show that WTI behaves as a net risk receiver in the risk spillover network, while the Financial Stress Index (FSI), non-commercial short and long positions in crude oil futures (NCS, NCL) are the biggest net risk transmitters. The dynamic results indicate that total connectedness degree presents time-varying characteristics and increased sharply during the financial crisis. The NCS and NCL's risk spillover to WTI increased since 2016 due to the financialization of commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Wan-Li & Fan, Ying & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Extreme risk spillover between crude oil price and financial factors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321003457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612321003457
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Ma, Yan-Ran & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Pan, Jiaofeng, 2019. "Spillovers between oil and stock returns in the US energy sector: Does idiosyncratic information matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 536-544.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    6. Ji, Qiang & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei, 2019. "Measuring the interdependence between investor sentiment and crude oil returns: New evidence from the CFTC's disaggregated reports," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 420-425.
    7. He, Feng & Ma, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yang, Bohan, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries' economic policy uncertainty and China's energy sector," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Wei, Yu & Liu, Jing & Lai, Xiaodong & Hu, Yang, 2017. "Which determinant is the most informative in forecasting crude oil market volatility: Fundamental, speculation, or uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 141-150.
    9. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    11. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. Zhu, Zhaobo & Ji, Qiang & Sun, Licheng & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2020. "Oil price shocks, investor sentiment, and asset pricing anomalies in the oil and gas industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Zongyuan & Luo, Qingtian, 2023. "Inter-industry risk spillover, role reversal, and economic stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Zhu, Pengfei & Lu, Tuantuan & Chen, Shenglan, 2022. "How do crude oil futures hedge crude oil spot risk after the COVID-19 outbreak? A wavelet denoising-GARCHSK-SJC Copula hedge ratio estimation method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).
    3. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    4. Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitris Kenourgios & Drosos Koutsokostas & Georgios Pergeris, 2023. "Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 198-211, May.
    5. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Dokas, Ioannis & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2022. "Value investing versus other investment strategies: A volatility spillover approach and portfolio hedging strategies for investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Liang, Xuedong & Luo, Peng & Li, Xiaoyan & Wang, Xia & Shu, Lingli, 2023. "Crude oil price prediction using deep reinforcement learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Tian, Maoxi & Alshater, Muneer M. & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "Dynamic risk spillovers from oil to stock markets: Fresh evidence from GARCH copula quantile regression-based CoVaR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Liu & Tongshuai Qiao & Liyan Han, 2022. "Does clean energy matter? Revisiting the spillovers between energy and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2068-2083, November.
    2. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Adams, Zeno & Collot, Solène & Kartsakli, Maria, 2020. "Have commodities become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of Financialization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Chan, Ying Tung & Qiao, Hui, 2023. "Volatility spillover between oil and stock prices: Structural connectedness based on a multi-sector DSGE model approach with Bayesian estimation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 265-286.
    5. Ben Amar, Amine & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad, 2022. "Asymmetric cyclical connectedness on the commodity markets: Further insights from bull and bear markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 386-400.
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Gabauer, David, 2021. "A closer look into the global determinants of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Semeyutin, Artur & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Xu, Bing, 2021. "Effects of idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps on oil, gold, and copper markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Thobekile Qabhobho & Anokye M. Adam & Anthony Adu-Asare Idun & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei & Ebenezer Boateng, 2023. "Exploring the Time-varying Connectedness and Contagion Effects among Exchange Rates of BRICS, Energy Commodities, and Volatilities," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 272-283, March.
    10. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 96-111.
    12. Yin, Libo & Ma, Xiyuan, 2018. "Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 434-453.
    13. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    14. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham & Goh, Mark & Zou, Huiwen, 2022. "Risk spillovers and time-varying links between international oil and China’s commodity futures markets: Fresh evidence from the higher-order moments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    15. Ma, Yan-Ran & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei & Pan, Jiaofeng, 2021. "Financialization, idiosyncratic information and commodity co-movements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang & Zhang, Xinhua, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and portfolio strategies between crude oil, gold and Chinese stock markets related to new energy vehicle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Ugurlu-Yildirim, Ecenur & Soytas, Ugur, 2019. "The role of trading volume, open interest and trader positions on volatility transmission between spot and futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 410-422.
    18. Hachicha, Néjib & Ben Amar, Amine & Ben Slimane, Ikrame & Bellalah, Makram & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness and optimal hedging strategy among commodities and financial indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Sebastián Sanín-Restrepo, 2021. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock markets: Volatility spillovers, networks and causality," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 37-50.
    20. Conghui Hu & Zhibing Li & Xiaoyu Liu, 2020. "Liquidity shocks, commodity financialization, and market comovements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1315-1336, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321003457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.